Reply #15: Your assuming the MOE was tied to how people voted

[Mistwell]

However, the early exit polls EXPRESSLY state it is for Demographics data only. You only think it is 1% for all the data, and not just the demographics data, because TIA always posts the screen shot that left that disclaimer off the poll (for space reasons, I assume). It was and still is always on Mitofsky's site.

You can read a detailed analysis of how the MOE changes when you pin it to the "how people voted" data, and it's a pretty drastic change. See, for example:

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/11/the_freeman_pap.html

which provides some background to the Freeman debatem and the follow-up (which talks more about the MOE):

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/12/what_is_the_sam.html