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1/23 UPDATE: NATIONAL EXIT POLL DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-23-05 12:55 PM
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1/23 UPDATE: NATIONAL EXIT POLL DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS
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Edited on Sun Jan-23-05 01:50 PM by TruthIsAll
The average of the weighted National Exit Poll statistics
across  categories indicates that Kerry won by 50.8% - 48.0%. 


National Exit Poll 
13047 sampled
Randomly selected
1.0% Margin of Error

Quick summary:
Women (54% majority) voted almost 5-4 for Kerry
Protestants voted 5-4 for Bush. All others voted for Kerry.
Military voted 5-4 for Bush
Late deciders voted 5-4 for Kerry 
Those who considered Economy, health care or education as most
important issues voted 3-1 for Kerry.
Those who considered morality or terror as most important
issues voted 4-1 for Bush.
The South voted 5-4 for Bush. Kerry won all other regions.
Moderates voted almost 3-2 for Kerry.
Independents voted 6-5 for Kerry.
Under age 30 voters voted 5-4 for Kerry.
Post graduates voted 3-2 for Kerry.
Under $50k income voted 3-2 for Kerry.


WEIGHTED SUMMARY			
CATEGORY       Bush   Kerry   Nader			
			
GENDER        48.22%  50.78%  1.00%			
EDUCATION     48.05%  50.21%  1.17%			
INCOME        48.12%  51.42%  0.95%			

RACE          47.86%  50.94%  1.00%			
AGE           48.17%  50.53%  1.00%			
PARTYID       47.77%  50.69%	 0.92%

IDEOLOGY      48.15%  49.85%  1.00%			
RELIGION      48.19%  51.55%  1.19%			
MILITARY      47.62%  51.20%  1.00%			

DECIDED       47.95%  51.23%  0.54%			
ISSUES        47.92%  50.80%  1.28%			
REGION        47.95%  50.53%  1.00%			
			
AVERAGE       48.00%  50.81%  1.00%			

Actual Vote
Bush  62,028,194	50.732%
Kerry 59,027,612	48.277%

Probability of Bush average deviation (2.732%):
= 1- NORMDIST(0.5073,0.48,0.01/1.96,TRUE)= 0.000000043879
or
************* 1 in 22,790,202 **************

Probability of Bush deviation based on Party-ID (2.96%):
= 1- NORMDIST(0.5073,0.4777,0.01/1.96,TRUE)= 0.000000003294
or
************* 1 in 303,538,508 *************


                
GENDER   
..... Vert    Bush  Kerry   Nader     Bush    Kerry Nader
Male  46%     52%    47%      1%      23.5%   21.6%   0.5%
Female 54%    45%    54%      1%      24.3%   29.2%   0.5%
      100%                            48.22%  50.78% 1.00%

EDUCATION
........  Vert    Bush  Kerry   Nader   Bush    Kerry Nader
No HS      4%      47%  52%     1%      1.9%    2.1%    0.0%
HS Grad   22%      48%  51%     1%      10.6%   11.2%   0.2%
College   31%      51%  47%     1%      15.8%   14.6%   0.3%
Col Grad  26%      50%  48%     1%      13.0%   12.5%   0.3%
Postgrad  17%      40%  58%     2%       6.8%    9.9%   0.3%
          100%                          48.1%   50.2%   1.2%
                                                        

 AGE 
........  Vert   Bush  Kerry   Nader    Bush    Kerry Nader
18-29      17%   43%    56%     1%      7.3%    9.5%    0.2%
30-44      27%   50%    49%     1%      13.5%   13.2%   0.3%
45-59      30%   47%    51%     1%      14.1%   15.3%   0.3%
60 +       26%   51%    48%     1%      13.3%   12.5%   0.3%
          100%                          48.2%   50.5%   1.0%

INCOME
......Vert    Bush   Kerry   Nader    Bush    Kerry   Nader
0-$15    9%     33%     66%     1%      3.0%    5.9%   0.1%
15-30   15%     39%     59%     1%      5.9%    8.9%   0.2%
30-50   22%     47%     52%     1%     10.3%   11.4%   0.2%
50-75   23%     53%     45%     1%     12.2%   10.4%   0.2%
75-100  13%     50%     49%     0%      6.5%    6.4%   0.0%
100-150 11%     53%     45%     2%      5.8%    5.0%   0.2%
150-200  4%     53%     47%     0%      2.1%    1.9%   0.0%
200,000  4%     58%     41%     1%      2.3%    1.6%   0.0%
       100%                            48.1%   51.4%   1.0%

PARTYID
........  Vert   Bush Kerry   Nader   Bush    Kerry Nader
Dem        38%     9%  90%     1%      3.4%   34.2%   0.4%
Rep        35%    92%  7%      0%     32.2%    2.5%   0.0%
Ind        27%    45%  52%     2%     12.2%   14.0%   0.5%
          100%                        47.77%  50.69% 0.92%
                                                        
IDEOLOGY
...... Vert    Bush  Kerry   Nader    Bush    Kerry  Nader
Lib   22%     12%     86%     1%      2.6%    18.9%   0.2%
Mod   45%     41%     57%     1%      18.5%   25.7%   0.5%
Con   33%     82%     16%     1%      27.1%   5.3%    0.3%
      100%                            48.2%   49.9%   1.0%
                                                        
RELIGION
......Vert    Bush  Kerry   Nader      Bush    Kerry Nader
Prot   53%     56%     43%     1%      29.7%   22.8%   0.5%
Cath   27%     49%     50%     1%      13.2%   13.5%   0.3%
Jewish  3%     23%     77%    0%        0.7%    2.3%   0.0%
Other   7%     20%     75%     4%       1.4%    5.3%   0.3%
None   10%     29%     70%     1%       3.2%    7.7%   0.1%
      100%                             48.2%   51.6%   1.2%
                                                        
MILITARY
...... Vert    Bush  Kerry  Nader      Bush    Kerry Nader
Yes     18%    55%     43%     1%      9.9%    7.7%    0.2%
No      82%    46%     53%     1%      37.7%   43.5%   0.8%
        100%                           47.6%   51.2%   1.0%
                                                        
WHEN DECIDED
........  Vert   Bush  Kerry   Nader   Bush    Kerry  Nader
Today       6%   40%     53%     5%     2.4%    3.2%    0.3%
Last3Days   3%   41%     53%     4%     1.2%    1.6%    0.1%
Last Week   2%   51%     48%     1%     1.0%    1.0%    0.0%
Last Month 10%   38%     60%     1%     3.8%    6.0%    0.1%
Before     79%   50%     50%     0%     39.5%  39.5%    0.0%
           100%                         48.0%  51.2%    0.5%

MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE 
....... Vert    Bush  Kerry   Nader   Bush    Kerry  Nader
Taxes    5%     53%    47%     0%      2.7%    2.4%    0.0%
Educ     4%     24%    75%     0%      1.0%    3.0%    0.0%
Iraq     15%    23%    76%     1%      3.5%   11.4%    0.2%
Terror   18%    85%    15%     1%     15.3%    2.7%    0.2%
Economy  20%    16%    82%     1%      3.2%   16.4%    0.2%
Morals   21%    78%    19%     3%     16.4%    4.0%    0.6%	
Health   8%     20%    79%     0%      1.6%    6.3%    0.0%	
         100%                         47.9%   50.8%   1.3%			
REGION
......Vert    Bush  Kerry   Nader   Bush    Kerry   Nader
East   22%    41%     58%     1%      9.0%   12.8%   0.2%	
Midw   25%    49%     50%     1%     12.3%   12.5%   0.3%	
South  31%    54%     44%     1%     16.7%   13.6%   0.3%	
West   22%    45%     53%     1%      9.5%   11.1%   0.2%	
      100%                          47.95%  50.53%	1.00%


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