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Reply #4: Nothing wrong. Roundoff. The 37/37 mix is OUTSIDE the 1% MOE.. [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-16-05 05:45 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Nothing wrong. Roundoff. The 37/37 mix is OUTSIDE the 1% MOE..
Edited on Sun Jan-16-05 06:13 PM by TruthIsAll
37/37/26:

1.67% deviation = 50.73- 49.07 = outside MOE.
The odds are 1 in 1,755. A long shot.

36/38/26:
 0.83% = 50.73% - 49.90%  is inside the MOE.
The odds are 1 in 19. A long shot at the track.

Bottom Line.

Kerry wins, even assuming 38Repub/36 Dem weights, which is
totally unrealistic.

I believe the actual weights are more like 39Dem/35 Repub.
I believe Kerry won by 51-48.

PARTY ID	MIX	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Democrat 	39%	9%	90%	1%	3.5%	35.1%	0.4%
Republican 	35%	92%	7%	0%	32.2%	2.5%	0.0%
Independent	26%	45%	52%	2%	11.7%	13.5%	0.5%
	100%				      47.41%	51.07%	0.91%

Probability =1-NORMDIST(0.5073,0.4741,0.01/1.96,TRUE)
Probability = 3.84717E-11	

or ********** 1 in 25,993,152,685 ********
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