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Reply #7: A simpler explanation is this: [View All]

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spooked911 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-15-05 10:04 PM
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7. A simpler explanation is this:
normally when an incumbent picks up a lot of new votes, he wins the election by a very large percentage margin (e.g. Reagan's 18% margin and 10.6 million new votes in 1984). In the case of Bush in 2004, he picked up a very large number of new votes (11.5 million) without much of a winning margin (2.5%).

Because we know Democrats were very united against Bush, and the electorate was very polarized, there can't have been much switching from 2000. This means Bush got something like 60% of the new voters who didn't vote in 2000. But given Bush's overall vote percent was 51%, this means new voters behaved very different from the electorate as a whole--- and it is very hard to believe this was the case, especially given that new excited voters tend to go 1) for Democrats and 2) for the challenger.

The question has remained as ever since Nov.2, 2004-- where the hell did Bush get all his new votes from?!?!
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