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Reply #61: Ffocus on the fact that 43 out of 51 states (incl DC) deviated to Bush [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-16-05 12:15 AM
Response to Reply #29
61. Ffocus on the fact that 43 out of 51 states (incl DC) deviated to Bush
from the exit polls to the vote tally. If Kerry deviated down, Bush deviated up. You would expect that they would each gain in about 25 states if it were a random event.

Its like getting 43 heads (or tails) in 51 flips of the coin. Try it yourself. The odds are 3 million to 1 against this occurrence.

Simliarly, one would not expect the deviations to exceed the margin of error (MOE) in 20 states.

The odds are 1 in 40 that the deviation would exceed the MOE in any ONE state. To exceed the MOE in 20 states is too high for Excel's normal distribution function to calculate.
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