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I HAVE JUST UPDATED THE EXIT POLL ANALYSIS: THE RESULTS ARE ASTOUNDING. [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-15-05 04:12 PM
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I HAVE JUST UPDATED THE EXIT POLL ANALYSIS: THE RESULTS ARE ASTOUNDING.
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Edited on Sat Jan-15-05 04:31 PM by TruthIsAll
Today I updated the analysis to include the absolute, final
vote totals as requested by another DUer. I had used the
preliminary results as of Nov 3, disregarding any changes to
the actual reported totals. The final numbers make the results
even more improbable, if that is possible.

I do request any enterprising DUer to check my numbers. If you
do, note that the vote and exit poll percentages have been
converted to their 2-party equivalents and add to 100%. If
there are errors in the updated voting percentages, please let
me know.

Now, here is the crux of the update.
In the original analysis, 
1) 16 states deviated beyond the MOE to Bush.
The latest numbers now show that TWENTY (20) did. 
The probabilities of this occurrence have gone beyond the
known universe. So unlikely, that Excel cannot compute it.

2) 41 states deviated to Bush, regardless of MOE. 
The latest numbers now show that FORTY-THREE (43) did. 
This reduces the probablity to one in 2.9 Million. 

I will check the numbers again. I believe they are accurate.

Kerry's exit poll and vote percentages are based on the
exit poll numbers downloaded by Simon at 12:22 AM Nov 3. 

The numbers have been converted to two-party percentages
so as to total 100%. The purpose was to maintain
comparability to other pre-election projection models. The
adjustments are proportional to the exit poll and vote
percentages. The post-adjusted numbers are in proportion to
the original numbers. There is NO BIAS for Kerry or Bush.

For example: 
Assume Bush won the state vote 50%-49% with 1% going to third
parties. 
Bush's adjusted two-party percentage is 50/99 = 50.505%
Kerry's two-party percentage is 49/99 = 49.495%

These are the relevant statistics from the table:
N = exit poll sample size
Poll = Kerry's exit poll percentage
Vote = Kerry's vote percentage
Diff = Kerry deviation from exit poll to vote

MOE = Margin of error = 1/sqrt(N)
StDev = standard deviation = MOE /1.96 (95% confidence level)

Prob = Probability of vote deviation based on Diff and StDev
Prob is calculated for each state using the Excel Function:
Prob = 1-Normdist(Poll, Vote, StdDev, true)
Odds = odds of occurrence = 1 in (1/Prob)

Analysis Summary
----------------
Bush vote tallies exceeded the exit poll MOE in 20 states.
The probability of this occurence is given by the Excel
formula:
Prob = 1- BINOMDIST(19,51,.025,TRUE)

The ORIGINAL odds of this occurring due to chance for SIXTEEN
(16) states was 1 in 13.5 trillion. 

In the NEW analysis, for Bush's vote tallies to exceed the MOE
in TWENTY (20)states, it is BEYOND the CAPACITY of Excel to
display the result - because the probability is smaller than
30 ZEROS to the RIGHT of the decimal point. And Excel only
displays the result up to thirty decimals. It is therfore
effectively zero.

****** The probability is VIRTUALLY ABSOLUTE ZERO *********

I cannot calculate the odds, because you can't divide by
zero..

As previously mentioned, the final voting numbers show that
exit poll deviations without regard to the margin of error
favored Bush in 43 states.

The probability of this occurence is given by the Excel
formula:
Prob = 1- BINOMDIST(42,51,0.5,TRUE)

The odds of this occurring due to chance alone: 
 **************  1 in 2.9 MILLION  *********************

Other stats:
The unweighted average Kerry deviation from the exit polls:
2.24%.
The unweighted average MOE for all states: 2.85%.

The MOE was significantly lower than the average (2.85%) in
the
battleground states where the sample size was large.

A total of 73,607 were polled nationwide.					

St	N	Poll	Vote	Diff	StDev	MoE	Prob  	 1 in	>MoE?	Favor
AK	910	40.5%	35.6%	-4.9%	1.7%	3.3%	0.002	524	yes	Bush
AL	730	41.0%	36.9%	-4.1%	1.9%	3.7%	0.014	70	yes	Bush
AR	1,402	46.6%	44.6%	-2.0%	1.4%	2.7%	0.066	15		Bush
AZ	1,859	47.0%	44.4%	-2.6%	1.2%	2.3%	0.014	72	yes	Bush
CA	1,919	54.0%	54.4%	0.4%	1.2%	2.3%	0.645	2		Kerry

CO	2,515	49.1%	47.1%	-2.0%	1.0%	2.0%	0.024	42	yes	Bush
CT	872	58.5%	54.3%	-4.2%	1.7%	3.4%	0.008	130	yes	Bush
DC	795	91.0%	89.4%	-1.6%	1.8%	3.5%	0.193	5		Bush
DE	770	58.5%	53.4%	-5.1%	1.8%	3.6%	0.003	385	yes	Bush
FL	2,846	50.5%	47.1%	-3.4%	1.0%	1.9%	0.000	4,799	yes	Bush

GA	1,536	43.0%	41.4%	-1.6%	1.3%	2.6%	0.112	9		Bush
HI	499	53.3%	54.0%	0.7%	2.3%	4.5%	0.622	2		Kerry
IA	2,502	50.6%	49.3%	-1.4%	1.0%	2.0%	0.091	11		Bush
ID	559	33.5%	30.3%	-3.2%	2.2%	4.2%	0.067	15		Bush
IL	1,392	57.0%	54.8%	-2.2%	1.4%	2.7%	0.056	18		Bush

IN	926	41.0%	39.3%	-1.7%	1.7%	3.3%	0.150	7		Bush
KS	654	35.0%	36.6%	1.6%	2.0%	3.9%	0.792	1		Kerry
KY	1,034	41.0%	39.7%	-1.3%	1.6%	3.1%	0.204	5		Bush
LA	1,669	44.5%	42.3%	-2.2%	1.2%	2.4%	0.040	25		Bush
MA	889	66.0%	62.1%	-3.9%	1.7%	3.4%	0.011	90	yes	Bush

MD	1,000	57.0%	56.0%	-1.0%	1.6%	3.2%	0.262	4		Bush
ME	1,968	54.7%	53.6%	-1.2%	1.2%	2.3%	0.154	6		Bush
MI	2,452	52.5%	51.2%	-1.3%	1.0%	2.0%	0.112	9		Bush
MN	2,178	54.5%	51.2%	-3.3%	1.1%	2.1%	0.001	797	yes	Bush
MO	2,158	47.5%	46.1%	-1.4%	1.1%	2.2%	0.101	10		Bush

MS	798	43.3%	40.2%	-3.0%	1.8%	3.5%	0.046	22		Bush
MT	640	39.8%	38.6%	-1.2%	2.0%	4.0%	0.277	4		Bush
NC	2,167	48.0%	43.6%	-4.4%	1.1%	2.1%	0.000	35,233	yes	Bush
ND	649	34.0%	35.5%	1.5%	2.0%	3.9%	0.773	1		Kerry
NE	785	36.8%	32.7%	-4.0%	1.8%	3.6%	0.013	75	yes	Bush

NH	1,849	55.4%	50.4%	-5.0%	1.2%	2.3%	0.000	94,466	yes	Bush
NJ	1,520	55.0%	52.9%	-2.1%	1.3%	2.6%	0.059	17		Bush
NM	1,951	51.3%	49.0%	-2.3%	1.2%	2.3%	0.026	39		Bush
NV	2,116	49.4%	48.1%	-1.3%	1.1%	2.2%	0.128	8		Bush
NY	1,452	63.0%	58.4%	-4.6%	1.3%	2.6%	0.000	3,468	yes	Bush

OH	1,963	52.1%	48.7%	-3.4%	1.2%	2.3%	0.002	624	yes	Bush
OK	1,539	35.0%	34.4%	-0.6%	1.3%	2.5%	0.330	3		Bush
OR	1,064	51.2%	51.6%	0.4%	1.6%	3.1%	0.601	2		Kerry
PA	1,930	54.3%	51.0%	-3.4%	1.2%	2.3%	0.002	566	yes	Bush
RI	809	64.0%	59.6%	-4.4%	1.8%	3.5%	0.007	147	yes	Bush

SC	1,735	46.0%	41.0%	-5.0%	1.2%	2.4%	0.000	52,161	yes	Bush
SD	1,495	37.8%	38.4%	0.7%	1.3%	2.6%	0.697	1		Kerry
TN	1,774	41.5%	42.5%	1.0%	1.2%	2.4%	0.801	1		Kerry
TX	1,671	37.0%	38.2%	1.2%	1.2%	2.4%	0.837	1		Kerry
UT	798	30.5%	26.0%	-4.5%	1.8%	3.5%	0.007	149	yes	Bush

VA	1,431	48.0%	45.6%	-2.4%	1.3%	2.6%	0.038	26		Bush
VT	685	65.0%	59.2%	-5.8%	1.9%	3.8%	0.002	666	yes	Bush
WA	2,123	54.9%	52.9%	-2.1%	1.1%	2.2%	0.030	34		Bush
WI	2,223	52.5%	49.8%	-2.7%	1.1%	2.1%	0.006	175	yes	Bush
WV	1,722	45.3%	43.2%	-2.1%	1.2%	2.4%	0.047	21		Bush
WY	684	30.9%	29.1%	-1.8%	2.0%	3.8%	0.182	5		Bush
	73,607									
Avg	1,443	48.82%	46.58%	-2.24%	1.46%	2.85%	0.1094	9		Bush
Med	1,495	49.10%	47.08%	-2.09%	1.32%	2.59%	0.0474	21		Bush
Min	499	30.50%	26.03%	-5.78%	0.96%	1.87%	0.0000	94,466		
Max	2,846	91.00%	89.43%	1.62%	2.28%	4.48%	0.8372	1		
								
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