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Reply #81: You think this is the final NEP exit poll release ? [View All]

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euler Donating Member (515 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 10:49 PM
Response to Reply #72
81. You think this is the final NEP exit poll release ?
Edited on Mon Jan-10-05 11:01 PM by euler
The final NEP poll will not say "Preliminary" at the top and "these percentages may change" at the bottom.

By the way, we have dualing Mitofsky's, but with one difference. I give the links to my sources, you don't

What I am pointing out is that, there is a 1% chance of getting a result that is inaccurate by more than the "margin of error" - IF the population distribution is truely random AND the sampling is truely random - neither of which is the case. The logistics of achieving anything approaching a random sample in an exit poll are daunting, and we know that the distribution within the population is not random


Much of the belief that the election was stolen was based on "screen shots" of raw numbers provided by CNN. In exit polling, raw numbers mean almost nothing since the essence of a successful exit poll is to interview a sampling of voters, and then apply a variety of methods in order to adjust to the most probable accurate assessment. "To say you want the raw data is ludicrous," ... "You can't use it until you do something with it. You're talking about a bunch of nave people that had the first course in statistics."

Bill Leonard, a former CBS News VP who was a polling pioneer, has called exit polls "blunt instruments." The widely circulated notion that they are always right is dead wrong.

The notion that a single definitive number showing Kerry winning ever existed is also wrong. "We never had unadjusted unofficial totals," said the source. "As we get more data, we're always adjusting."

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