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Reply #80: He claims no such thing [View All]

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Salomonity Donating Member (106 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 10:45 PM
Response to Reply #72
80. He claims no such thing
That formula you keep quoting ad nauseum for margin of error applies ONLY if each sampled voter is independent of every other, which is NOT the case here--if a voter in precint A is polled, then the chance of another voter in precint A being polled is much higher than for a voter in some other precinct B, because Mitofsky doesn't poll every precinct.

The voters polled, in other word, are clustered, and the traditional error formula DOES NOT APPLY. Full stop. Any attempt to assume otherwise is the mark of a mathematical illiterate, using formulas in contexts where they are invalid.

Further, we've had reports posted here that in at least one precinct, Democratic voters were volunteering to be polled, and were indeed being given questionnaires. If true, that's another nail in the coffin of the random sample.

If there was even a slight disposition of republicans to answer less often, again, the poll is no good.

If too many urban voters were polled--which is likely, because there's no way to compare urban vs rural turnout until the votes are counted--the poll is no good.

Why should we believe you, rather than Mitofsky, since he knows a lot more about the poll's internals, and unlike you, seems to understand statistics?
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