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Reply #52: 18 NATIONAL POLLSTERS HAD IT RIGHT- KERRY GOT 51% [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-08-05 10:46 AM
Response to Reply #18
52. 18 NATIONAL POLLSTERS HAD IT RIGHT- KERRY GOT 51%
Edited on Sat Jan-08-05 10:56 AM by TruthIsAll
Taking an average of the final national polls (Registered
voters) and assuming that Kerry would get 67-75% of the
undecided vote, he was projected to win 51.15% (for 67%) or
51.63% (for 75%) of the TWO-PARTY VOTE.

The third party vote was 1.0%
So we must subtract 0.50% from Kerry's and Bush's percentages.

If Kerry won 67% of the undecided: 50.65% = 51.15 - 0.50
If Kerry won 75% of the undecided: 51.13% = 51.63 - 0.50

That exactly confirms the National Exit Poll of 50.78%. 
											
Latest Poll Results				Projected Kerry % of Vote			
	                         Other/undecided % to Kerry					
Date	Poll	Kerry	Bush	MoE	2-party	60%	67%	75%	80%	87%	
1020	AP	49	46	 3.50 	0.516	0.520	0.524	0.528	0.530	0.534	
1021	Time	46	51	 3.00 	0.474	0.478	0.480	0.483	0.484	0.486	
1024	LAT	48	47	 4.00 	0.505	0.510	0.514	0.518	0.520	0.524	
1025	Harris	48	47	 2.50 	0.505	0.510	0.514	0.518	0.520	0.524	
1026	ICR	44	46	 3.10 	0.489	0.500	0.507	0.515	0.520	0.527	
1027	Econ	49	45	 2.00 	0.521	0.526	0.530	0.535	0.538	0.542	
1029	Nwk	45	48	 4.00 	0.484	0.492	0.497	0.503	0.506	0.511	
1030	Pew	46	45	 3.50 	0.505	0.514	0.520	0.528	0.532	0.538	
1030	Zogby	47	48	 3.10 	0.495	0.500	0.504	0.508	0.510	0.514	
1030	ARG	49	48	 3.50 	0.505	0.508	0.510	0.513	0.514	0.516	
1030	ABC	48	47	 3.00 	0.505	0.510	0.514	0.518	0.520	0.524	
1031	Marist	49	48	 2.50 	0.505	0.508	0.510	0.513	0.514	0.516	
1031	TIPP	44	45	 3.50 	0.494	0.506	0.514	0.523	0.528	0.536	
1031	CBS	46	47	 3.00 	0.495	0.502	0.507	0.513	0.516	0.521	
1031	FOX	48	45	 3.40 	0.516	0.522	0.527	0.533	0.536	0.541	
1031	DemC	48	47	 3.10 	0.505	0.510	0.514	0.518	0.520	0.524	
1031	Gallup	48	46	 4.00 	0.511	0.516	0.520	0.525	0.528	0.532	
1031	NBC	47	48	 3.00 	0.495	0.500	0.504	0.508	0.510	0.514	
										
	Mean	47.17%	46.89%	3.21%	50.15%	50.73%	51.15%	51.63%	51.92%	52.34%	
	Median	48.00%	47.00%	3.10%	50.52%	50.90%	51.35%	51.75%	52.00%	52.35%	
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