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Reply #27: Hate to be devil's advocate here, but here's how the #'s actually break: [View All]

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bj2110 Donating Member (802 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-03-05 10:05 PM
Response to Reply #9
27. Hate to be devil's advocate here, but here's how the #'s actually break:
Edited on Mon Jan-03-05 10:20 PM by bj2110
Based on current CNN exit poll data. Percentages assumed & adjusted to 1 decimal place in order to generate the backcheck of totals across the board both ways, i.e. 100% of the polled category and the total # of votes for each candidate. Numbers are in thousands.

2004 # Votes Represented by Returning Voters
(thou) Total Bush Gore Other None
TOTAL 119,804 51,516 44,327 3,594 20,367
BUSH 60,934 46,725 4,344 740 9,124
KERRY 57,765 4,533 39,762 2,534 10,937
OTHER 1,105 258 222 320 306


This actually shows that only 46.7 million voters who voted for Bush in 00 also voted for him in 04, although the % is higher than that of the Dems, 46.7/50.5 = 92.5% returning Bush vs. 39.8/51.0 = 78.0% returning Democratic. Not unreasonable at all. Of course, these are based on re-weighted and adjusted totals to match the actual vote. But in and of itself, I don't see anything conclusive.

Here are the adjusted candidate breakdown percentages:
2004 Exit Poll Results
Total Total % Bush % Gore % Other % None %
TOTAL 119,804 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
BUSH 60,934 50.9% 90.7% 9.8% 20.6% 44.8%
KERRY 57,765 48.2% 8.8% 89.7% 70.5% 53.7%
OTHER 1,105 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 8.9% 1.5%


Total Percentages:
Returning Voters from 2000
Bush Gore Other None Total
43% 37% 3% 17%
51,516 44,327 3,594 20,367 119,804
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