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Reply #277: there's also a questionable sample size in PA and OH [View All]

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m.standridge Donating Member (269 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-02-05 12:47 AM
Response to Reply #241
277. there's also a questionable sample size in PA and OH
relatively speaking in Prof. Freeman's exit poll list.
The OH and PA sample sizes are smaller than much more lightly-populated states. But this isn't off enough, to throw them completely off.
But the polls I saved--the pre-election polls toward the end--were showing Kerry leading in OH more often than Bush.
Several pre-election polls were showing NH neck and neck.
And several were showing Bush carrying either IA or WI, sometimes both.
They were going to be close.
Same with Nevada, some pre-election polls showed Bush carrying Nevada, and if you look at the graphic for SurveyUSA's poll on 11/1 in NV, the Kerry graph is going rapidly downward, the Bush upward. That's the opposite, for example, of in AR, where Clinton had started campaigning for Kerry at the 11th hour. Also, CO was showing Kerry with a surge. But I doubt Kerry carried CO.
A lot of polls were showing Florida a real horse race, as with OH.

So, the question is, did Kerry win Ohio and Florida? We keep finding things in both places. Can we find enough in Ohio? They've found a lot, but it often seems that there's a way to go. They found 1100 votes in a couple of rural counties, 20,000 votes in Cuyahoga County, hundreds more in Columbus, Toledo, and into the hundreds in some southern Ohio counties--and that's all since the official corrections and the recount. There seems to be enough to knock Bush's lead in Ohio down to way less than 40,000 votes. If we can just keep finding things.

I've got this feeling, about Ohio, New Mexico and Nevada- I think Kerry carried Nevada, but it was very, very close, maybe 10, 20 votes.
New Mexico, I get the impression Kerry carried NM, but a close investigation could hurt the Dems there, too. Kerry's margin in NM was also very close, but not as close as NV. Maybe less than 500 votes. (How solid is Kerry's lead in PA, MI and WI?)
Insofar as Ohio--God, it got close there. I don't know how much of it had to do with the people who had to get out of line and not vote. I'd like to think they can find enough actual ballots, to get a lead for Kerry. But I'm not sure they can actually find that. Even if all the ideal things were to happen--the state cooperate, the Senator(s) cooperate. It's going to be very, very close in Ohio. But I'm a little bit optimistic that Kerry carried it, but there was a slightly larger number of pre-election polls indicating he was carrying OH than not carrying it. FL and CO, they have a lot of military people. In NV, they have that "none of the above" thing.
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