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Reply #275: ok, but here are a couple of things to factor [View All]

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m.standridge Donating Member (269 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-02-05 12:22 AM
Response to Reply #141
275. ok, but here are a couple of things to factor
you have a .95% margin of error--almost 1%

91% of Gore voters, voted for Kerry;
90% of Bush voters, 2000, voted for Bush;

that's approximately 1% difference.

easily eaten up by the .95% margin for error.

Here's the other thing:

16% of those who didn't vote for either Bush or Gore last time, voted for Nader this time.

Nader got the lion's share, his biggest percentages and numbers, in the northeast.

So, it fits that Nader "contributed" most to Kerry, in the Northeast, the areas like Ohio and New Hampshire, and also in New Mexico and Nevada, two other states where Nader made among his largest showings. (Minnesota and Wisconsin were the two others.)

At the same time, because his percentages were smaller in other areas of the nation and in other states, it would fit that this 1% difference is best and most likely expressed and found in the northeast.

Again, what is the exit polling telling us when we break it down, state by state?
About the same the the pre-election polling was telling us in those very last few days:

Unclear who won the overall National Popular vote.

But relatively clear who won Ohio, New Mexico, Nevada, and Iowa... with a bit of play in Iowa:

Enough to put him over in the Electoral College.
Enough to give him healthier margins in PA, and NH, as well, than what he is credited with now.

In other words, Kerry was probably the first Democrat to win in the Electoral College only.

And we've seen pre-election polling indicating Kerry/Edwards was also getting it pretty close in FL and AR, as well as CO. Did he carry the latter three this time? Perhaps FL, since it was pretty clearly for Gore last time, once they were finally able to trace everything out.
If we take all these states, and all the number suggested by the various exit polls and pre-election polls, we find Kerry beating Bush in the Electoral College. There's more of a gray area as to whether he actually beat him in the overall Popular vote.
After all, Bush had the flag-waving, the bin Laden video, the incombency, and also less of a challenge from Kerry in the South than he'd had from Gore--who himself had had the advantage of the incumbency. Kerry also was painted as ultra-liberal and pro-gay marriage, etc. ("I believe marriage is between a man and a woman" Bush said repeatedly during the debates, when discussions were about the Iraq war, Enron, etc.)
Bush peaked in the Red states he'd carried before, and he probably got it really closer in a couple of the blue states. Maybe he got Florida, and maybe he got Iowa (pre-election polling WAS suggesting the either Iowa or Wisconsin was going to be a red state--remember those poll titles? AT the same time, those same polls were strongly suggesting that Ohio was "too close to call."
Well, isn't that exactly what happened? We are still looking at numbers in Ohio, and finding more, but it's coming in slowly.
It's hard to get the media interested in looking at this, because no Democrat has ever won in the Electoral only before. The failure to lead in the Popular vote, has put them off the scent. Historians have said this so often, how unlikely that a Dem. would win in the Electoral College only. And it IS unlikely. But over 200 years, it had to happen, sooner or later...
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