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Reply #170: This analogy is wrong... [View All]

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anaxarchos Donating Member (963 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-31-04 04:30 AM
Response to Reply #60
170. This analogy is wrong...

There is an underlying assumption that the vote count is the actual data while the forecast is an indicator. This is, in fact, a built-in bias of pollsters. But, in this case, it is precisely the vote count which is in question.

A better analogy would be yours except that you go on your picnic, you go to sleep, you wake up, and sitting next to you is Katherine Harris. She says, "Sadly, while you were asleep, it rained. But luckily, I was here and I dried you off. You owe me 50 bucks for services rendered." You look around and everything is dry. Do you pay up?

All of a sudden, the forecast is not "obviously wrong", it is significant.

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