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Reply #168: He just didn't stand up to the cross examination [View All]

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davidgmills Donating Member (651 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-31-04 03:40 AM
Response to Reply #158
168. He just didn't stand up to the cross examination
Edited on Fri Dec-31-04 04:17 AM by davidgmills
Your expert didn't know what the design effect number was and sent Freeman off on a goose chase. He thought the number was 30% and told Freeman that. Freeman does his analysis based on 30. Then he discovers that he didn't know what he was talking about and has to get help and is told that the number is now between 50-80%. He is questioned why the number has increased so drastically since 1996 and he doesn't have a clue.

He's asked many questions by commentators and answers few.

He comes up with his own analysis using the 50 to 80% numbers and decides everything is within the MOE. Macdonald on DU, does his own analysis using the 50 - 80% numbers and he concludes something is amiss. I point it to Mystery Pollster and he does nothing.

One other major thing I pointed out to him is that TIA did an analysis that showed that the very last pre-election polls and the "uncorrupted" late exit polls were nearly identical. If there was a "design effect", there should have beeen a difference between the two numbers, which the design effect would have to correct. He had no answer for this either.

Another guy on this board proved that the late exit polls matched papper ballots very closely but not electronic ones. Did he have an answer for this? No.

So like I said, he just didn't stand up to cross exam.
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