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"Uncounted Votes in Cuyahoga County" by R. H. Phillips. How many?? [View All]

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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-26-04 03:42 AM
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"Uncounted Votes in Cuyahoga County" by R. H. Phillips. How many??
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I'm not sure I agree with their numbers. In another thread, Chaos in Cuyahoga, a lessor number seems the consensus. At the beginning of that thread, this issue was new to me. I must acknowledge those who made me aware of it. Also, Joe Knapp did a lot of work putting the spreadsheet together. Here's the other thread this summary is extracted from:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

<snip> from RH Phillips article on non-votes:

"Brian Julin provides this analysis: 'Without considering ballot order (rotation) problems, which are obvious in several precincts as there are aberrant third party votes, and which may be less than obvious in collocated precincts where Bush and Kerry votes were swapped, if all undervotes were allocated in proportion to votes that were validly counted, Kerry would pick up approximately 7935 votes and Bush would pick up approximately 2675.' " </snip>

There are some difficult to analyze aspects to the non-vote issue. I hope this summary is useful.

jmknapp post: ."some precincts are so heavily Kerry that any Bush votes switched to Badnarik/Peroutka would not be noticeable. For example, if 100 random votes were switched in a 95% Kerry (inner city) precinct, 95 Kerry votes might go to Bush, 5 Bush votes to Badnarik--no red flag."

AirAmFan post: "Since polling places in pro-Kerry areas tended to be overcrowded much more often than polling places in pro-Bush areas, the vast majority of miscounted votes would have been intended for Kerry, though some intended for Bush doubtless wound up being miscounted too."

L. Coyote post:

Statewide, punch card non-votes ... is near 2 percent. If E-Voting is a true baseline..."

"These two cases illustrate the winners and losers..."

"In the first precinct Kerry loses 93 or less to Bush's loss of 9 or less. In the second case Kerry losses up to 24 to "disqualified" while Scrubya loses up to 4 to Badnarik."

"The numbers of each ballot type allocated to locations.
Sorted by the number of ballot types per location.

5 4 3 2 1 Total

bBKdp 9 47 85 115 31 287

BKdpb 10 46 99 102 31 288

KdpbB 11 49 90 101 35 286

dpbBK 10 47 94 87 49 287

pbBKd 9 49 97 98 31 284

They are not evenly distributed!"

jmknapp post: "there should be no association with cluster size or any other factor. I would think that the distribution in Coyote's table should be even. It's hard to argue I think that a particular order should be favored in any particular grouping."

L. Coyote posts: "if Kerry and Bush are in the same position on two orders at one location, cross-precinct voting will switch their votes. So, basically you want cross-precinct voting to occur where your opponent has the highest support. If 90 percent are voting Kerry, for every 9 votes switched from Kerry to Bush, 1 vote switches from Bush to Kerry. (Anyway, that's when both precincts cross over equally. If you can get just one precinct to cross over, say by shorting just that precinct of equipment for example, the equations change dramatically.)"

"With only two ballot types at a location, if Bush and Kerry swap votes in one position, from their other positions Kerry and Bush votes go to Badnarik and Peroutka.

b B d K p --- b B d K p
d K p b B --- K p b B d "

I found this to be the county wide pattern:

# Ballots Count
10 5 1
9 4 1
7 5 1
7 3 1
6 5 2
6 4 3
6 3 1
5 5 4
5 4 22
5 3 6
4 4 28
4 3 26
4 2 6
3 3 106
3 2 43
3 1 2
2 2 176
2 1 18
1 1 134

"Here is the precinct count and average number of non-votes. The higher the Kerry percentage, the more non-votes there are for those precincts.:

> 90 80-90 80-60 <60

Count 106 59 183 155

Non-Vote 12.11 10.03 7.69 5.91

"The mean number of non-votes per precinct sorted by ballot numbers is:

Ballots 5 4 3 2

Non-Vote 4.47 5.50 7.14 8.33

"The sequence of the candidates is constant. So I reduced the possible combinations to just four, the number that the second ballot shifts in relation to the first ... I'm applying the term "crawl" to this.

Irrespective of which candidate is in front of the line, this is a "4 crawl"

b B K d p
B K d p b

The lower row has crawled four space to the right. It doesn't matter which one is top or bottom either. ... Likewise with "crawl 1." Crawl one is the same as crawl four if you switch upper and lower and sort columns to ascending order!! The same can be done with crawls 2 and 3."

"The actual vote numbers give a good idea of the relative weight of the categories: 'the number of ballot types at a location.'

Kerry Badnarik Bush Non-Vote Peroutla

5 10,163 38 8,682 219 19

4 58,382 256 43,684 1,308 230

3 125,631 505 63,090 3,329 422

2 145,473 719 58,922 4,200 798

1 55,263 165 18,108 1,633 132

All 394,912 1,683 192,486 10,689 1,601

The totals are off because I lack the ballot order at several precincts."

Iceburg post: "Only a hand recount of the punch cards combined with comparison to poll signature books is likely to (but not with absolute certainty) tell the truth. What we have now, is mounting circumstantial evidence ...not absolute proof."

jmknapp post: "Ran a simulation of random vote-switching to see what happens in Cuyahoga County

* pick one of the 591,348 votes cast at polling places
* pick another precinct at the same polling place to switch it to
* if the order is the same, ignore
* if the order is different, tally result

When done a large number of times in the simulation, it turns out that Kerry loses 0.55 vote on the average for each vote switched. Bush loses 0.17 vote for each vote switched. .....

Since Badnarik got 1,886 votes countywide, if all were due to random switches, an estimate of the total switched would be 1886/.24 = 7,858 ballots."

L. Coyote post: "...there are only Two Patterns of Switching. ... The "crawl 1 and 4" pattern swaps Kerry and Bush votes both ways, and benefits Badnarik one way and disqualified the other way.

The "crawl 2 and 3" pattern has Kerry and Bush votes going to the other 3 positions.

The big payoff for Bush is the "crawl 1 and 4" combination in 95% Kerry precincts...."

Enough for an intro to this issue I hope. A lot of discussion went into distilling these understandings. Praise the hive mind!

I'll place more info in a separate post following, then return to discussing the number of cross-votes, the important question.

Read the Phillips article.



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