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Reply #37: Not exactly [View All]

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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-26-04 12:39 AM
Response to Reply #34
37. Not exactly
For one thing, I'm not looking at total votes, but rather the differences between percentage of Bush and Kerry votes in 2004, compared with the differences between Bush and Gore votes in 2000.

Kerry won 25.8% of the vote in Auglaize, compared to Gore winning 28.8% (I'm excluding 3rd party candidates). The difference is 3%, but you have to double that because Bush also won 3% more votes. So Gore outperformed Kerry by 6%. In the average Non-Triad county, Kerry outperformed Gore by 2.5%. The difference between + 6% and
- 2.5 % is 8.5%. There were 23,031 votes cast in 2004. If Kerry would have performed (relative to Gore) in this county similarly to how Kerry performed in a typical non-Triad county, he would have received 8.5% more of a vote margin (combination of more Kerry and less Bush votes) in that county, or 1958 additional votes.

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