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Reply #31: Time For Change -- Three comments... [View All]

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IndyOp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-25-04 10:53 PM
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31. Time For Change -- Three comments...
I have recopied your analysis in several different threads. I attributed it to a post by EOTE -- I am guessing that this must be your son.

You might want to check out this similar analysis...
<http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... >

Also check out this critique of your analysis by MuleThree. His argument is that because the Triad counties had smaller populations than non-Triad counties "if you took the non-Triad percentages and applied them to the Triad counties then Bush would lose 25,000 votes and Kerry would pick up 25,000 votes." But, because, "The non-triad counties are larger and include more urban areas and minorities, there are plausible explanations" .
<http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... >

My thought is that because the counties implicated in switching votes from Kerry to Bush in Arnebeck's suit are a mix of Triad (18), ES&S (16), and Fidlar (2) counties your analysis may actually be less powerful as a result of grouping counties as Triad & non-Triad.

The Triad counties implicated in Arnebeck's suit are Brown, Champaign, Clinton, Darke, Defiance, Greene, Highland, Holmes, Logan, Madison, Mercer, Miami, Pickaway, Preble, Putnam, Union, Van Wert and Warren. ES&S Counties are Adams, Allen, Auglaize, Butler, Clermont, Crawford, Delaware, Fairfield, Geauga, Hamilton, Hancock, Lawrence, Licking, Richland, Shelby, Williams. Fidlar: Medina & Morrow.

If you have the data close at hand, I would be interested in knowing whether the implicated Triad counties differ in Kerry/Gore votes as compared to the non-implicated Triad counties? (I think that 'implicated counties' in Arnebeck's suit are all counties in which John Kerry received at least 1,000 fewer votes than C. Ellen Connally - Dem candidate for Supreme Court).

The counties implicated in switching votes from Connally to Moyer in Arnebeck's original suit are also a mix ES&S (8); Triad (6); Danaher (1); Diebold (1). The six Triad counties are Ashtabula, Jefferson, Lorain, Montgomery, Portage, and Summit. ES&S is in Athens, Cuyahoga, Erie, Mahoning, Ottawa, Sandusky, Stark, and Trumbull. Danaher is in Franklin; Diebold is in Lucas. Huron is also listed in the lawsuit, but I can't tell from VerifiedVoting.org what type of voting system they have.

:kick:

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