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Reply #39: How do you know that the polls were unweighted? [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-24-04 06:17 PM
Response to Reply #33
39. How do you know that the polls were unweighted?
Edited on Fri Dec-24-04 06:23 PM by TruthIsAll
If the networks use early exit poll data to call elections, why should there be a problem with that?

Does it take Mitofsky/NPR 3-6 months to weight the numbers?
Is that why they won't release them? Come on, its been almost 8 weeks.

And what about the 71,000 exit polled and released prior to 8am?
That's 63% of the 113,000 total to be polled, and is a pretty heavy weight all by itself.

If we assume the final 113,000 is a fair representation of the voting population, and Kerry was ahead by 3% after 71,000 were polled, then consider this:

Bush needed to win 56% of remaining 42,000 to reverse the 51-48 spread from Kerry to his favor.

Forget weighting for a moment. Do you really believe that a 15% Bush turnaround from the first 71,000 (counted, where he had 48%) to the final 42,000 (not yet counted, where he needed 56%) was possible?

I don't.



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