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Reply #26: Regarding the MOE calculated for N respondents [View All]

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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-24-04 02:04 PM
Response to Reply #21
26. Regarding the MOE calculated for N respondents
Edited on Fri Dec-24-04 02:10 PM by L. Coyote
Don't you have to use each of the 51 data sets of results individually to calculate the MOE? You have a difference for Ohio, so how many N do you have for that determination, how many for Florida, etc. Do no arbitrarily lump 51 datasets and apply that N to calculate MOE for the datasets. This is flawed.

Divide 71,000 by 51 and you have N at near 1400. Expect a MOE nearer to 3 percent (I'm being a little cautious).

This is the basis of my sorting in the spreadsheet. Forget all states within this MOE.

17 states remain with greater than 3.0 percent absolute value discrepancies. Call these the suspicious states, and call Jimmy Carter. Here we really have a valid concern.

Filter to Exit Poll Difference over 3.0 Percent.
Electoral
State Exit Vote Diff. Votes
Massachusetts Blue 66 62.6 -3.4 12
Virginia Blue 65.0 60.2 -4.8 13
Rhode Island Blue 64.0 60.6 -3.4 4
New York Blue 63.0 59.2 -3.8 31
Delaware Blue 58.5 53.5 -5.0 3
Connecticut Blue 58.5 55.1 -3.4 7
New Hampshire Blue 55.4 50.5 -4.9 4
Minnesota Blue 54.5 51.5 -3.0 10
Pennsylvania Blue 54.4 51.0 -3.4 21
Ohio Red 52.1 49.0 -3.1 20
Florida Red 50.5 47.5 -3.0 27
North Carolina Red 48.0 44.0 -4.0 15
South Carolina Red 46.0 41.4 -4.6 8
Mississippi Red 43.3 40.0 -3.3 6
Alaska Red 41.0 37.0 -4.0 3
Alabama Red 40.5 36.1 -4.4 9
Nebraska Red 36.8 32.3 -4.4 5


Next, filter out the states where the candidate won by over 5 percent, more than the discrepancy. Let's change those to "outcome as expected." So we have filtered to the states where the difference exceeds a reasonable MOE and the outcome may have been altered. They are:

New Hampshire Blue 55.4 50.5 -4.9 4
Minnesota Blue 54.5 51.5 -3.0 10
Pennsylvania Blue 54.4 51.0 -3.4 21
Ohio Red 52.1 49.0 -3.1 20
Florida Red 50.5 47.5 -3.0 27


Two of these states have a different outcomes that the exit polls predicted. Send Jimmy Carter there.

Forget the rest. MoveOn.now.
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