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Reply #21: First of all, I don't claim to be a polling expert; I'm just an analyst [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-24-04 12:22 PM
Response to Reply #16
21. First of all, I don't claim to be a polling expert; I'm just an analyst
These are the facts:

1)There has been a concerted effort made by the media to hoodwink the general public into believing that exit polls are inaccurate, even though all historical evidence is to the contrary.

2) In the data which was downloaded by Simon and released by SCOOP at 12:20 am on Nov 3, 71,000 out of an anticipated 113,000 were already polled. That's 63% of the total sample. It was a large enough sample for us to assume it accurately represented the voting population. I explain why below.

3 Kerry was leading by 51-48% at 8PM, as most journalists were led to believe,then Bush needed to win a very large majority of the 42,000 remaining to be polled to reverse the result.

4) NPR/ Mitofsky not released the raw data. Why? Could it be because it would confirm a Kerry win? Occam's razor would seem to apply in this case.

5) Cal-tech later debunked their own initial polling analysis, after they learned that the data they used was not the data which Simon downloaded, but was in fact "massaged" around midnight. The data was "massaged" (that is an understatement) to supposedly "match" the recorded votes. Think about that for a minute. Polling data was manipulated because it did not agree with the votes. Does that make sense to you?

5) The fact that 2004 exit polling deviated far from the actual votes has never been explained. Let us use a little bit of statistics and some common sense here. Let's stipulate that exit polls have proven to be much more accurate than pre-election polls. That is a fact.

6) People may not know at the time they are polled prior to an election who they WILL vote for (they may not even vote), but they sure know who they HAVE voted for after the fact.

7) The MOE calculated below for various sample sizes are actually conservative since they are based on standard pre-election polling.

8) There were 71,000 respondents polled by 8PM on Nov 2.

9) Here is the MOE calculated for N respondents. The formula is very simple. The MOE= 1/sqrt(N), where N is the sample size.

The MOE is equal to 0.38% for the initial 71,000 poll sample (63% of the total). It is equal 0.30% for the full 113,000 polled.
That's an insignificant difference.

10) The average Gore deviation was -0.12% (well within the 0.30% MOE)
The average Kerry deviation was -1.8% (way beyond the 0.38%) MOE

The MOE= 1/sqrt(N), where N is the sample size.
Let's look at the MOE for sample size N:

N Sqrt(N) MOE
1,000 31.6 3.16%
1,500 38.7 2.58%
2,000 44.7 2.24%
3,000 54.8 1.83%
5,000 70.7 1.41%
10,000 100.0 1.00%
20,000 141.4 0.71%
30,000 173.2 0.58%
40,000 200.0 0.50%
50,000 223.6 0.45%
60,000 244.9 0.41%

71,000 266.5 0.38%
113,000 336.2 0.30%

THE 71,000 POLLING RESULTS (63% OF THE TOTAL) IS AN OVERWHELMING SAMPLE. I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE REMAINING 42,000 TO DEVIATE FROM THE RESULTS BY ANYTHING MORE THAN A VERY SLIGHT AMOUNT.

THAT IS THE LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS.
THAT IS THE SAMPLING ERROR OF THE MEAN.
THAT IS STATISTICS 101.

YOU CAN SEE THE LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS TAKE EFFECT CLEARLY IN THE CALCULATION OF THE MOE BASED AS THE SAMPLE SIZE INCREASE.

WITH 71,000 POLLED, WE HAVE ALREADY CONVERGED ON THE SAMPLE MEAN TO WITHIN ONE PERCENT. THE RESULT WILL FALL WITHIN THE MOE 95% OF THE TIME. WE HAVE ALREADY PASSED THE MARGIN OF ERROR POINT OF NO RETURN.

FROM 71,000, THE DIFFERENCE IN THE SAMPLE POLLED BECOMES A MOOT POINT - THE LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS HAS TAKEN OVER.

I have said enough.
As I said before, I am not a pollster.
I am not a statistician.
I do have three degrees in mathematics.
I have developed quantitative programs for MANY years.
I am an Excel expert.
I always strive for the truth.
No one is paying me a dime for what I do.
I never expect to capitalize on this analysis.
I just want to present the facts to the best of my ability.
The truth about this election is being hidden from the public.
The media lock down and spin is tantamount to treason.
I have made mistakes in my probability calculations, but they were not far off and were fixed. No one has disputed my final result.

Finally, let me repeat the result which I have posted many times:

For 16 out of 51 states to deviate from the exit polls to the vote tallies beyond the MOE in favor of Bush (and none to Kerry), the odds of this occurring due to chance is

************** ONE out of 13.5 TRILLION *****************





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