You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Reply #11: It's still not clear to me [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
jkd Donating Member (151 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-24-04 05:20 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. It's still not clear to me
I'm not really interested in the movement of one candidate relative to the other between pre-election polls and the actual vote. I don't believe that has anything to do with the accuracy of the exit polls.

If the exit poll predicts that Gore will get 49% of the vote and he actually gets 45%, that's a -4% deviation. If Bush has exit poll projections of 49% and he gets 53%, that's a +4% deviation. Does your model now add 1% to both Bush and Gore and call it a -3% deviation for Gore? Or might it be a +5% deviation for Bush? The total deviation doesn't change, but in your model using only Gore movement it appears to greatly lessen the deviation.

I fail to comprehend why changing exit polls to a two party comparison has anything to do with the accuracy of exit polls.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC