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Reply #11: It's still not clear to me [View All]

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jkd Donating Member (151 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-24-04 05:20 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. It's still not clear to me
I'm not really interested in the movement of one candidate relative to the other between pre-election polls and the actual vote. I don't believe that has anything to do with the accuracy of the exit polls.

If the exit poll predicts that Gore will get 49% of the vote and he actually gets 45%, that's a -4% deviation. If Bush has exit poll projections of 49% and he gets 53%, that's a +4% deviation. Does your model now add 1% to both Bush and Gore and call it a -3% deviation for Gore? Or might it be a +5% deviation for Bush? The total deviation doesn't change, but in your model using only Gore movement it appears to greatly lessen the deviation.

I fail to comprehend why changing exit polls to a two party comparison has anything to do with the accuracy of exit polls.
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