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Reply #3: Data Table: Deviations and Machine Problems [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-19-04 01:14 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. Data Table: Deviations and Machine Problems
Reg = registered voters (in millions)

MchProb = machine problems reported per million registered
voters. This is a relative measure for state comparisons.

Prob = probability Bush's vote tally would exceed 3.0% MOE. 
Note that the 3.0% MOE is a very conservative estimate.
For example, the calculated MOE for FL = 1.84%, based on the
2816 polling sample size.

State	Exit	Kerry	Shift	Prob	>MOE	Favor	Prob	Reg	MchProb
DE	58.50	53.54	-4.96	0.10%	1.96	Bush	0	0.571	0
NH	55.40	50.51	-4.89	0.10%	1.89	Bush	0	0.935	0
VT	65.00	60.20	-4.80	0.10%	1.80	Bush	0	0.468	0
SC	46.00	41.41	-4.59	0.10%	1.59	Bush	28	3.027	9.25
NE	36.75	32.32	-4.43	0.20%	1.43	Bush	0	1.225	0

AK	40.50	36.08	-4.42	0.20%	1.42	Bush	0	0.420	0
NC	48.00	44.00	-4.00	0.40%	1.00	Bush	32	5.962	5.37
AL	41.00	37.00	-4.00	0.40%	1.00	Bush	15	3.306	4.54
NY	63.00	59.18	-3.82	0.60%	0.82	Bush	179	12.756	14.03
CT	58.50	55.10	-3.40	1.30%	0.40	Bush	0	2.377	0

RI	64.00	60.61	-3.39	1.30%	0.39	Bush	1	0.735	1.36
MA	66.00	62.63	-3.37	1.40%	0.37	Bush	8	4.558	1.76
PA	54.35	51.00	-3.35	1.40%	0.35	Bush	251	9.138	27.47
MS	43.25	40.00	-3.25	1.70%	0.25	Bush	8	2.079	3.85
OH	52.10	49.00	-3.10	2.10%	0.10	Bush	240	8.358	28.72

FL	50.50	47.47	-3.03	2.40%	0.03	Bush	312	11.405	27.36
MN	54.50	51.52	-2.98	2.60%	-0.02	Bush	4	3.554	1.13
UT	30.50	27.55	-2.95	2.70%	-0.05	Bush	1	1.503	0.67
ID	33.50	30.61	-2.89	3.00%	-0.11	Bush	0	0.948	0
AZ	47.00	44.44	-2.56	4.70%	-0.44	Bush	36	1.226	29.36

KS	35.00	37.37	2.37	94.00%	-0.63	Kerry	2	1.939	1.03
ND	34.00	36.36	2.36	93.90%	-0.64	Kerry	0	0.472	0
LA	44.50	42.42	-2.08	8.80%	-0.92	Bush	130	1.246	104.31
IL	57.00	55.00	-2.00	9.60%	-1.00	Bush	84	8.592	9.78
WI	52.50	50.51	-1.99	9.60%	-1.01	Bush	25	3.929	6.36

WV	45.25	43.43	-1.82	11.80%	-1.18	Bush	2	1.398	1.43
NM	51.30	49.49	-1.81	11.90%	-1.19	Bush	53	1.256	42.19
SD	37.75	39.39	1.64	85.90%	-1.36	Kerry	0	0.555	0
CO	49.10	47.47	-1.63	14.40%	-1.37	Bush	43	3.168	13.57
IN	41.00	39.39	-1.61	14.70%	-1.39	Bush	8	4.471	1.79

GA	43.00	41.41	-1.59	15.00%	-1.41	Bush	50	0.851	58.78
CA	54.00	55.56	1.56	84.50%	-1.44	Kerry	104	21.605	4.81
MO	47.50	46.00	-1.50	16.40%	-1.50	Bush	6	4.123	1.46
TN	41.50	43.00	1.50	83.60%	-1.50	Kerry	6	4.281	1.4
NJ	55.00	53.54	-1.46	16.90%	-1.54	Bush	54	5.719	9.44

WA	54.95	53.54	-1.41	17.80%	-1.59	Bush	7	4.167	1.68
TX	37.00	38.38	1.38	81.70%	-1.62	Kerry	75	13.717	5.47
WY	30.90	29.59	-1.31	19.60%	-1.69	Bush	1	0.362	2.76
HI	53.30	54.55	1.25	79.20%	-1.75	Kerry	2	0.851	2.35
IA	50.65	49.49	-1.16	22.50%	-1.84	Bush	0	2.156	0

AR	46.60	45.45	-1.15	22.70%	-1.85	Bush	3	1.957	1.53
OK	35.00	34.00	-1.00	25.70%	-2.00	Bush	6	2.505	2.4
KY	41.00	40.00	-1.00	25.70%	-2.00	Bush	2	3.071	0.65
MI	52.50	51.52	-0.98	26.00%	-2.02	Bush	71	7.177	9.89
NV	49.35	48.48	-0.87	28.60%	-2.13	Bush	4	1.433	2.79

OR	51.20	52.00	0.80	69.90%	-2.20	Kerry	0	2.495	0
ME	54.75	54.08	-0.67	33.10%	-2.33	Bush	1	0.983	1.02
MD	57.00	56.57	-0.43	38.80%	-2.57	Bush	9	3.719	2.42
VA	45.20	45.45	0.25	56.60%	-2.75	Kerry	34	5.216	6.52
DC	91.00	90.91	-0.09	47.60%	-2.91	Bush	20	0.416	48.13

MT	39.75	39.80	0.05	51.20%	-2.95	Kerry	2	0.679	2.95

Avg	47.89	22.64	-0.75	-0.25	-0.75	Total	1,919	189	10.15


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