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jmknapp Donating Member (381 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-22-04 04:33 PM
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172. Simulation
Edited on Wed Dec-22-04 04:35 PM by jmknapp
Ran a simulation of random vote-switching to see what happens in Cuyahoga County

* pick one of the 591,348 votes cast at polling places
* pick another precinct at the same polling place to switch it to
* if the order is the same, ignore
* if the order is different, tally result

When done a large number of times in the simulation, it turns out that Kerry loses 0.55 vote on the average for each vote switched. Bush loses 0.17 vote for each vote switched.

Overall, for each vote switched, on the average:

Kerry -0.55
Bush -0.17
Badnarik +0.24
Peroutka +0.22
Disqualified +0.26

Since Badnarik got 1,886 votes countywide, if all were due to random switches, an estimate of the total switched would be 1886/.24 = 7,858 ballots.

That's consistent with the Peroutka total since the random switch model would project 7858*.22 = 1728 votes for Peroutka. He got 1751.

If that's the case, then Kerry would have lost 7858*0.55 = 4,322 votes due to random ballot switches. Bush would have lost 7858*0.17 = 1,336.

Net, Kerry's margin might have thus been shrunk by 4322-1336 = 2,986 votes due to random ballot switches.

This would be an upper bound because of the assumption that all Badnarik/Peroutka votes are due to switches.

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