Reply #48: Thanx4 the insight &the graphic. Nonvotes= votes for Disqualified +under-

[AirAmFan]

undervotes + overvotes + write-ins, in Cuyahoga as in the other 67 punchcard counties, according to mulethree in post #66 on Iceburg's parallel thread.

Overvotes have more than one punch in the Presidential column, while undervotes include pregnant and hanging chads as well as smooth intact ballots with no discernable indentation for President.

The total number of votes cast for president in Cuyahoga was 673,766, according to http://serform2.sos.state.oh.us/sos/results/2004/gen/pres.htm But the number of votes cast overall in Cuyahoga was 687,260, according to http://serform2.sos.state.oh.us/sos/results/2004/gen/voterTurn.htm This leaves a difference of 13,494. Most of these are quite likely to be undervotes rather than overvotes or votes for DISQUALIFIED.

Each component of nonvotes has an associated set of theories of their origin.

As I pointed out in post #83 on the other thread, my favorite theory of undervotes is inferior equipment shunted off on poorer neighborhoods, for the same reason public schools get less experienced teachers there, sanitation workers leave more trash on the streets there, police more readily use their weapons there, etc.

We have at this point no disaggregated data on the components of non-votes, though Joe Knapp's correspondence with Michael Vu (post #67 on Iceburg's thread) left him somewhat optimistic that partially disaggregated non-vote data may become available eventually.

Correlations of nonvotes with Kerry votes shed light on the undervote component, but I'm more interested in the DISQUALIFIED component.

To test the bottom-up "caterpillar ballot" theory developed in this thread, I'd be most interested in the correlations between the DISQUALIFIED portion of the non-vote and three other variables: BADNARIK, PEROUTKA, and BADNARIK+PEROUTKA, both in the data on 1436 precincts and in the data on more than 400 polling places (clusters of precincts), by cluster size.

In addition, I've developed a theory of the inverse of the ratio between DISQUALIFIED and each of the other three variables I've mentioned (Invert because there are so many precincts and clusters with zero votes for minor candidates).

While we're waiting for more disaggregated data, the total nonvote in each precinct and cluster is an interesting substitute. Please keep up the good work!