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Reply #54: Calculating the odds is simple. It only depends on how [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-13-04 07:56 AM
Response to Reply #51
54. Calculating the odds is simple. It only depends on how
Edited on Mon Dec-13-04 08:04 AM by TruthIsAll
many states exceeded the margin of error in favor of Bush.
Based on available info, there were sixteen (16).

For N=16, the odds are 1 in 13.5 trillion. 

If the number of states drops from 16 to N, the odds will
change. But they will still be astronomical, in the billions
or millions or thousands, depending on N.

The Probability that at least N= 16 states would deviate
beyond the Exit Poll MOE to Bush, assuming a 3% MOE, is 
7.382983E-14. The Odds are 1 in 13.5 TRILLION. 
If we consider that Exit polls are more accurate than public
polls, and assume a 2% MOE, then for 23 states to deviate
beyond 2% the Probability is ZERO. Excel can't compute a
probability when N reaches 18.			

Probability	=1-BINOMDIST(N-1,51,0.025,TRUE)		
N	Probability	Odds: 1 out of	
2	0.365526770	3	
4	0.038533663	26	
6	0.001676323	597	
8	0.000037195	26,885	
10	0.000000477	2,098,096	
12	3.816E-09	262,019,924	
14	2.014E-11	49,652,431,051	
16	7.382E-14	13,544,660,533,445	 Actual odds
17	4.996E-15	200,159,983,438,689	
18	0.000E+00	#DIV/0!	Cannot compute
So even if N were equal to eight (8), the odds woould be 1 in
2 million.

Long shot. Very long.

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