You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Reply #54: Calculating the odds is simple. It only depends on how [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-13-04 07:56 AM
Response to Reply #51
54. Calculating the odds is simple. It only depends on how
Edited on Mon Dec-13-04 08:04 AM by TruthIsAll
many states exceeded the margin of error in favor of Bush.
Based on available info, there were sixteen (16).

For N=16, the odds are 1 in 13.5 trillion. 

If the number of states drops from 16 to N, the odds will
change. But they will still be astronomical, in the billions
or millions or thousands, depending on N.

The Probability that at least N= 16 states would deviate
beyond the Exit Poll MOE to Bush, assuming a 3% MOE, is 
7.382983E-14. The Odds are 1 in 13.5 TRILLION. 
			
If we consider that Exit polls are more accurate than public
polls, and assume a 2% MOE, then for 23 states to deviate
beyond 2% the Probability is ZERO. Excel can't compute a
probability when N reaches 18.			

Probability	=1-BINOMDIST(N-1,51,0.025,TRUE)		
			
N	Probability	Odds: 1 out of	
2	0.365526770	3	
4	0.038533663	26	
6	0.001676323	597	
8	0.000037195	26,885	
10	0.000000477	2,098,096	
12	3.816E-09	262,019,924	
14	2.014E-11	49,652,431,051	
16	7.382E-14	13,544,660,533,445	 Actual odds
17	4.996E-15	200,159,983,438,689	
18	0.000E+00	#DIV/0!	Cannot compute
	
So even if N were equal to eight (8), the odds woould be 1 in
2 million.

Long shot. Very long.


Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC