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Reply #40: Exit Poll Difference -- Correlation to Votes, w/ Red vs. Blue compared. [View All]

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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-12-04 03:24 AM
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40. Exit Poll Difference -- Correlation to Votes, w/ Red vs. Blue compared.
Here is a graphic of the Pearson correlations.



Basically, the red shift happened in blue states.

Kerry's vote percentages are all positive numbers, the difference mean is negative. The correlation value is negative, indicating numbers in the positive dataset increase while their counterparts (FL :FL, OH :OH, etc.) increases negatively.

Conclusion: In blue states, the higher the Kerry percentage, the greater the negative value of the difference. However, the correlation is not perfect.

This is the opposite of the correlation in red states, where the correlation is practically insignificant.

Regarding the correlation of Electoral College votes and the difference, opposite correlations prevail. While several big prizes have significant differences, the national picture does not show greater red shift in states with more electoral votes.

For those not into stats, Pearson correlations determine the relationship of 2 sets of variables. The result expresses the extent of a linear relationship between two datasets, with a value range from -1.0 to +1.0. A perfect linear relationship is a 1.0. A perfect inverse relationship is a -1.0. This spreadsheet provides an interactive exploration of the concept.

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