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Reply #10: Without the actual raw data from the exit polls however [View All]

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thedevilinthedetails Donating Member (121 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 03:42 PM
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10. Without the actual raw data from the exit polls however
your analysis relies on the data from the web sources of the exit poll numbers being correct. Perhaps errors were made getting this information out to the various websites?

Additionally, while I agree that the red shift numbers in battleground states is very interesting, one thing that everybody needs to keep in mind is the right wing talk radio. With over 12 million listeners nationwide (probably more on election day perhaps) Hannity has a big base. When the exit polling numbers early on showed Kerry ahead and things sounded bleak, Hannity went into overdrive mode, he even had Cheney on his show. He was FREAKING OUT and begging people to vote, especially in FLORIDA and OHIO. One could possibly make the argument that the change in exit polling numbers which showed the race getting tighter throughout the day shifted in correlation with the airing of his show (3-6 EST).

How much of an impact could Hannity have on the vote? Hard to say, but considering the margin of the vote in Ohio and Florida, it wouldn't take much to swing things one way or another, especially if the ratio of voting machines at each pecinct was manipulated in favor of long waits for largely dem precints and short waits for repug precincts. An entire cities worth of Hannity listeners who hadn't voted yet could have probably gone and voted at precincts where the lines were short while people in other precints were still in line from 7 in the morning!
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