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WTF!? Exit Polls Were Correct for Other Races [View All]

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BlueDog2u Donating Member (692 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-09-04 01:13 PM
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WTF!? Exit Polls Were Correct for Other Races
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Bruised, a new member, posted this to another thread. It definitely deserves one of its own:

See for FULL ORIGINAL EXIT POLL DOCUEMENTS for some Sates (e.g. Colorado, Ohio, Florida)
I would have put this on breaking news -but I do not have enough posts.
What I would really like would be a copy of the original National exit poll that predicted a lead to Kerry in the popular vote. SOMEBODY MUST HAVE DOWNLOADED those files that were on CNN all evening but have now vanished into thin air.
(Look for update times typically 7 pm).

If you have any other original exit polls, President or Senator, I will add them. I will be improving the site soon and adding an email for this. or you can reply here. The object is to publish the exit polls that have vanished into thin air! The fact of having source docs gives more weight to the figures. By the way the full polls also give detail about how voters voted within different regions of a state which can help analysis.

I can only see 2 possible explanations:
1/ That 44 people out of 2505 respondents all told the truth as to who they voted for Senator, but then lied about who they voted for president. This needs a pattern of respondents all lying in the same way otherwise the lies would tend to cancel each other out and the overall effect would be negligible.
2/ That 36,500 (1.8%) of votes were switched from Kerry to Bush in Colorado in order to help build up a popular vote mandate for Bush.

The fact that similar patterns are reported in many states makes me lean to the second theory. if only we had a full list of documented exit polls.


My comment. If we can demonstrate this as a national pattern, then it fully corroborates the statistical arguments of TIA and others, using direct empirical evidence which will be extremely difficult for any rational person to ignore. I think this is a high priority research project. Can someone out there help us with some clues about how to find this data. This is one thing even a dumb number person like myself can help with, and I'd be happy to do it. Where can we find these exit poll numbers for non-Presidential races?

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