Reply #144: You agree! Results cannot be due to chance. How come it took you so long?

[TruthIsAll]

You have just proved my case, only your probability numbers are still too low. But you are agreeing with the math and the approach.

I say AT LEAST 16 states of 51 exceeded the calculated MOE, and AT LEAST 23 of 51 exceeded a 2% Exit Poll MOE, if you believe exit polls are at least that accurate. I do. You look at only 13 states. Why don't you look at all 51?

And as for that 99% Confidence Interval, we can stipulate that it means using 3 standard deviations around the sample mean, which means a higher MOE, which means an increase range of acceptable deviations, which means that fewer states will fall outside the MOE, which means it easier to fool those who are unaware of the statistics. It's very slick way to try to frame the issue, but it's transparent to anyone who knows a little statistics. I'll stick with the tried and true 95% confidence limits as a basis for the probabilty calculations.

I used the SCOOP Exit Poll numbers. I have not updated the analysis the latest Voting tallies - which are raising Kerry's vote. Too little, too late. Just like Gore in 2000. The Media has already said that Bush won. You would expect Kerry's percentage to rise as final votes come in - because he won MORE than 50% of the vote in the first place.

BTW, I don't appreciate being called a dipshit or a douchebag, not even from one who agrees with me. Very unprofessional.

Did I ever resort to name-calling in my posts? Never. Just called you out on the facts - with a few strategic questions.

So this is your response:
"TruthIsAll, you are a dipshit and a douchebag. But you are right."

Well, thank you.