Reply #141: you really are a jackass

[c-macdonald]

Seriously. You're not even listening to what I'm saying. So instead of arguing, I'll show you what MY calculations have uncovered:

In comparing the projected Margin of Victory and the actual Margin of Victory, I have some interesting results in 13 states:

State Final Poll M.o.V.
M.o.V. M.o.V. S.E. Z P-Value
NEW HAMPSHIRE 1.37% 11.00% 2.63% 3.66 0.0126%
NEW YORK 18.04% 27.00% 2.98% 3.00 0.1333%
NORTH CAROLINA -12.43% -5.00% 2.77% 2.68 0.3644%
SOUTH CAROLINA -17.06% -9.00% 3.01% 2.68 0.3731%
VERMONT 20.14% 31.00% 4.23% 2.57 0.5138%
OHIO -2.11% 4.00% 2.55% 2.39 0.8337%
PENNSYLVANIA 2.50% 8.00% 2.41% 2.28 1.1361%
FLORIDA -5.01% 0.00% 2.38% 2.10 1.7816%
NEVADA -2.59% 3.00% 2.77% 2.02 2.1597%
ALABAMA -25.62% -17.00% 4.55% 1.89 2.9230%
MINNESOTA 3.48% 8.00% 2.42% 1.87 3.0925%
DELAWARE 7.59% 16.00% 4.57% 1.84 3.3030%
NEW MEXICO -0.79% 4.00% 2.88% 1.66 4.8151%

These 13 states show that the difference between the Poll margin of victory and the actual margin of victory is NOT due to chance alone. In fact, if our null hypothesis is that Actual M.o.V. <= Poll M.o.V. then we would reject this hypothesis for all 13 states at the 95% level and for 6 of the 13 states at the 99% level.

As Captain Douchebag (aka TruthIsAll) has shown on many occasions, doing a simple binomial test for these results yields:

13 out of 51, 95% confidence: 0.000014%
6 out of 51, 99% confidence: 0.000079%

What does all this mean? Well for one, it means TruthIsAll is a dipshit because he assumed I didn't want his analysis to be true. Second, it shows that something went wrong on election day, either with the polls or with the results (or both). Draw your own conclusions, but that's all I'm going to say on it.