Reply #126: One More Time. I will teach you all about MOE. Step by Step.

[TruthIsAll]

"But in either case, you have to look at Bush's and Kerry's results separately, meaning that there's a 2.5% chance Kerry's vote would be above the 95% C.I. and 2.5% chance it would be below (and likewise for Bush). There really is no way (that I know of) that you can combine the Bush and Kerry results to get an MOE as you described".

Now, One more time. Listen close.

1. In any given state, there is a 95% probability that the voting tally will fall within the margin of error.

2. Ergo, there is a 5% probability that it will not.

3. There is a 2.5% probability it will fall outside the MOE for Bush.
4. Ergo, there is a 2.5% probability it will fall outside the MOE for Kerry.

5. FACT. The Bush vote tallies fell outside the MOE in 16 out of 51 states (including DC)
6. FACT. The Kerry vote tallies fell outside the MOE in 0 out of 51 states (including DC)

7. FACT. The probability that the Bush tallies would fall outside the MOE in at least 16 states BY CHANCE is 1 in 13.5 TRILLION.
8. Ergo, since NONE of Kerry's states fell outside the MOE, there is no probability to calculate.

9. FACT. The MOE = 1/sqrt(N), where N is the sample size.
10. FACT. For various N, the MOE is:

N MOE
1000 3.1%
1500 2.5%
2000 2.2%
2500 2.0%
2816 1.8% (this is the FL MOE)

REMINDER. Check the deviations for each state and compare to the calculated MOE and you will see what I'm talking about.

QUESTION I. Is THAT now clear enough for you to understand?

QUESTION II. Do you get it yet?