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Reply #9: Huh... [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
reality_bites Donating Member (120 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-08-04 12:23 AM
Response to Reply #4
9. Huh...
"If I flip a coin 10 times and count the number of times the coin lands heads up I can make a useful prediction about the number of heads I would expect if I were to flip the coin 100 times or 1000 times or 10,000 times."

No you can't. Well, you said your not an expert. I'm not either, but I've taken my share of stat. classes in my other life. It is true that "samples *can* predict a lot about what is true for populations," but coin flips don't represent populations well. Each coin flip is a independent action. If I flip a coin 7 times and get 7 heads, that says nothing about what I will get on the 8th flip of the coin.

If I flip a coin 10 times and get 7 heads, it doesn't hold that I should get around 700 heads if I flip it 1000 times.
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