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Edison - Mitofsky Exit Polls Method Statment [View All]

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sabra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-07-04 10:28 PM
Original message
Edison - Mitofsky Exit Polls Method Statment
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Edited on Tue Dec-07-04 10:32 PM by sabra
<<SNIP>>
http://www.exit-poll.net/election-night/MethodsStatemen...

Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International conducted exit polls in each state and
nationally for the National Election Pool (ABC, AP, CBS, CNN, FOX, NBC). The polls should
be referred to as a National Election Pool (or NEP) Exit Poll, conducted by Edison/Mitofsky.
All questionnaires were prepared by NEP.

...

The polling places are a stratified probability sample of a state. Within each polling place an
interviewer approached every nth voter as he or she exited the polling place. Approximately 100
voters completed a questionnaire at each polling place. The exact number depends on voter
turnout and their cooperation.

...

The table below lists typical sampling errors for given size subgroups for a 95% confidence
interval
. The values in the table should be added and subtracted from the characteristics
percentage in order to construct an interval. 95% of the intervals created this way will contain the
value that would be obtained if all voters were interviewed using the same procedures. Other
non-sampling factors, including nonresponse, are likely to increase the total error.
%Error Due to Sampling (+/-) for 95% Confidence Interval
Number of Voters in Base of Percentage
% Voters with
Characteristic
100 101-200 201-500 501-950 951-23502351-5250
5% or 95% 6 5 3 2 2 1
15% or 85% 11 7 5 4 3 2
25% or 75% 13 9 6 5 3 2
50% 15 10 7 5 4 3
STATE # of polling locations Total # of interviews

AL 14 740 740
AK 29 1194 1194
AZ 35 1881 1500 381
AR 35 1483 1483
CA 35 2015 1541 474
CO 40 2501 2024 477
CT 15 879 879
DE 15 778 778
DC 15 796 796
FL 55 2760 2384 376
GA 35 1650 1650
HI 15 633 633
ID 15 804 804
IL 30 1443 1443
IN 25 946 946
IA 45 2491 2146 345
KS 15 671 671
KY 20 1075 1075
LA 39 1694 1694
ME 35 1992 1992
MD 20 1071 1071
MA 15 893 893
MI 50 2422 2198 324
MN 45 2192 2192
MS 15 806 806
MO 50 2276 2276
MT 15 664 664
NE 15 788 788
NV 39 2181 1716 465
NH 40 1896 1896
NJ 30 1524 1524
NM 35 1980 1609 371
NY 30 1476 1476
NC 40 2099 1800 299
ND 15 694 694
OH 49 2042 2042
OK 30 1604 1604
OR N.A. 951 N.A. 951
PA 50 2111 2111
RI 15 813 813
SC 34 1803 1803
SD 38 1567 1567
TN 25 1685 1352 333
TX 20 1583 1237 346
UT 15 828 828
VT 15 709 709
VA 25 1432 1432
WA 34 2063 1387 676
WV 43 1751 1751
WI 45 2340 2340
WY 15 767 767

<</SNIP>>

49 Precincts polled in Ohio, seems pretty wide spread to me...

Edit: OH bold

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