Reply #42: The final pre-election polls showed

[Yupster]

the race very close. There were six major polls, and Battleground put out two, one partisan Republican and one partisan Democratic.

Of the six non partisan, Bush was ahead in four, one was even and Kerry led in one by less than 1 %.

Here they are

Pollster Vote Projections
DETAILS Survey BUSH KERRY NADER OTHER Margin
Dates % % % % Bush Kerry

ELECTION RESULTS per AP (99%) 51.1 48.0 0.3 0.6 3.1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Zogby 11/1-2 49.4 49.1 0.3
Battleground: Tarrance (R) * 10/31 - 11/1 51.2 47.8 0.5 0.5 3.4
Battleground: Lake (D) ** 10/31 - 11/1 48.6 50.7 2.1
TIPP 10/30 - 11/1 50.1 48.0 1.1 0.8 2.1
Harris 10/29 - 11/1 49 48 2 1 1
Democracy Corps (D) 10/29-31 48.7 49.5 0.6 1.0 0.8
Gallup 10/29-31 49 49 1 1
Pew Research Center 10/27-30 51 48 1 3

_______________________________________________________

The winner was the Pew Research poll which got the numbers exact at 51-48 Bush. Ed Tarrance's partisan Republican Battleground poll was also dead on at 51-48. The TIPP poll was very close at 50-48 Bush.

Furthest off was Celinda Lake's Democratic part of the Battleground poll having Kerry up 51-49.

Pretty accurate results since pollsters were complaining this was a difficult election to poll because there was so much of a push to get less likely voters out to the polls. The polling firms would have to guess who to count and who not to.

Anyway, I think reading some of the posts here, there are people who think Kerry was up by 5 % in all the polls coming into election day and then, Blammo, he lost by 3 %.

That's not it. The overall polls showed Bush up a few percent and that's what he won by.