Reply #14: nothing wrong with your subtraction, but not likely Kerry won AK

[OnTheOtherHand]

The one Alaska pre-election poll (from September) showed Bush up by 27. He won in the official returns by about 26. (Bush led in the exit poll interviews by "only" 16.)

The news report seems to say that Bush is credited with more votes in the individual districts than he "actually" received overall. That suggests that some votes are somehow double-counted in the district totals. It isn't an error favoring Bush unless the _state_ totals are inflated, which the story doesn't say. But I don't see a more detailed explanation, and it looks like one would have to wade through 40 district PDFs in order to reconstruct the numbers. (BTW the story doesn't say whether Kerry likewise is credited with more votes in the district breakdowns than he "actually" received.)

http://www.ltgov.state.ak.us/elections/04genr/index.shtml