Reply #126: I am using the average match returned from the simulation..

[TruthIsAll]

and dividing it by 1900 to produce a sensitivity table of
probabilities that the number of matches would be greater than
N.
We are interested in the probability of getting at least N=14
matches, given the probability returned from the simulation.

For example:
If the average simulation match is 6 (prob =6/1900),
then the prob of getting 14 or more matches is:
0.36%	= 1-BINOMDIST(13,1900,6/1900,TRUE)

If the average simulation match is 8 (prob =8/1900),
then the prob of getting 14 or more matches is:
3.39%	= 1-BINOMDIST(13,1900,8/1900,TRUE)

					
match	Assume  average simulation matched pairs of 1900 
Prob
>=N	5	6	7	8	10	12	14	16

1	99.33%	99.75%	99.91%	99.97%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%
2	95.97%	98.28%	99.28%	99.70%	99.95%	99.99%	100.00%	100.00%
3	87.57%	93.83%	97.06%	98.64%	99.73%	99.95%	99.99%	100.00%
4	73.53%	84.92%	91.86%	95.79%	98.98%	99.78%	99.95%	99.99%
5	55.97%	71.54%	82.75%	90.09%	97.10%	99.25%	99.82%	99.96%
6	38.40%	55.46%	69.98%	80.93%	93.34%	97.99%	99.46%	99.87%
7	23.76%	39.37%	55.06%	68.71%	87.05%	95.47%	98.60%	99.61%
8	13.31%	25.58%	40.13%	54.73%	78.05%	91.12%	96.88%	99.02%
9	6.78%	15.24%	27.07%	40.75%	66.78%	84.58%	93.86%	97.84%
10	3.16%	8.36%	16.91%	28.31%	54.24%	75.84%	89.15%	95.73%
11	1.36%	4.24%	9.81%	18.37%	41.70%	65.34%	82.53%	92.35%
12	0.54%	1.99%	5.30%	11.15%	30.29%	53.88%	74.09%	87.41%
13	0.20%	0.87%	2.68%	6.34%	20.79%	42.40%	64.23%	80.80%

14	0.07%	0.36%	1.27%	3.39%	13.50%	31.81%	53.59%	72.65%

15	0.02%	0.14%	0.56%	1.70%	8.29%	22.74%	42.96%	63.33%
16	0.01%	0.05%	0.24%	0.81%	4.83%	15.49%	33.03%	53.37%