I'm a volunteer in Michigan, and here's what I'm hearing from the surprisingly LARGE number of Undecideds that we're finding:
They can't stand Bush, but they aren't sure Kerry is any better. They are trying to figure out if the "devil you know is better than the one you don't."
The smear campaigns have worked surprisingly well. "Flip-flopper" has entered the political vernacular, "supported the war but not the troops" is a regular refrain and the guys with military experience turn purple with fury over Kerry "betraying" his fellow vets. There are A LOT of "Anybody But Bush" type Kerry supporters, and even they use the same type of phrases. (Yes, these are untrue charges, and believe me when I say I've gotten good at refuting them; please put away your flame throwers and continue reading.)
Folks, we have been "out-marketed" AGAIN. Finding out "the truth" takes time, while the lies are being repeated everywhere by most media outlets. The talking heads (for heaven's sake Katie Couric was spouting this crap on Capital Report with Jon Stewart last night!) are NOT reporting on reality, and the pounding away they've been doing, while disgusting, is working. I don't have a solution, but I'm saying as loudly and clearly as I can (just like millions of others): THIS IS A PROBLEM. I am thinking some big sticks need to be employed to stop this phenomena, and I'm thinking an earlier thread by Walt Starr "List the Media WHORES who must be SHUT OUT!" needs to be SERIOUSLY considered. (See
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=767522 for details.)
For an incumbent to be ousted TWO QUESTIONS have to be answered:
1) Is the Incumbent worth keeping? Change isn't comfortable, and someone has to be pretty crappy before we'll try to find a "new boyfriend," but a a majority of people in this country are NOT happy with the current guy, so we are looking good on that one.
2) Is the New Guy going to be any better? This is where we have the problem: a lot of people aren't "sold" on John Kerry.
John Kerry has only been the candidate for a few months. Only a small percentage of the population actually paid attention during the primaries, so "President Kerry" isn't "comfortable" to the voters yet, and we've only been hearing about him for a few months. If you saw him during his "transition period" where he was learning to step out of his "Senator" role and into his new "Presidential" role, he wasn't that impressive. In the meantime, we have heard "President Bush" every single day for the last four years, and it is burned into people's brains. If you weren't paying attention to the terrible job the guy's doing (thus becoming an "anybody but Bush"), a lot of the news is "nice" or at the very least "neutral" -- he gave a speech, he went here, he did this, blah, blah, blah. John Kerry's introduction to the nation has been under direct attempts at character assassination, and some of the mud has stuck.
The debates are going to be crucial. Its going to be the first time a lot of people actually pay attention to Kerry, and BELIEVE ME when I say its going to matter. Kerry's got the harder job because he's "the new guy" AND no matter how well he does, the talking heads are going to be saying bad things about him. Can it be done? Yes, but its NOT going to be easy.
I truly believe the "grass roots" effort -- meaning US SPEAKING UP CONSTANTLY -- is the only way we're going to win this thing. Wear the buttons, put the bumper stickers on your car, keep replacing the yard signs, AND GET IN THEIR FACES. Use facts, use emotions, tailor the message as you need to, and NEVER FORGET REPETITION MATTERS because that is how "new products" are sold.
Folks, its going to be tight, and I'm not trying to get anyone down. I'm telling you the truth as I'm seeing it, and I'm not going to pretend I'm not scared to death. Orwell was off by 20 years; this election is really the most important one of our lives...and most of us would rather "someone else" was dealing with this stuff.
We can't just be citizens anymore; we have to be Patriots. Isn't that a surprise? :)