Reply #5: You've got it

[Gman]

The MOE is everything in polling as you describe. The MOE is a calculation that takes into account the size of the sample versus the population. The larger the sample, the smaller the MOE. I can go out and poll 10 people. If 5 are voting for Obama, 3 for McCain and 2 undecided, my poll says Obama leads McCain by 20% (50% - 30%). But the poll is worthless because the margin of error is huge because of the very small sample.

It's only when a lead is outside the MOE that you can say a candidate is likely winning. Note that you cannot say flat out that a candidate is winning. T

And BTW, consistency can also mean that you're making the same error consistently.