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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-19-08 02:40 PM
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Edited on Fri Sep-19-08 03:28 PM by tiptoe

Election Model Trend: Obama vs. Kerry

September 19, 2008

In Sept. 2004, John Kerrys poll numbers and projected vote share declined sharply right after the Republican Convention. This year was no different: Obamas 4% national poll lead evaporated to a 2% deficit. But like Kerry, Obamas poll numbers quickly rebounded.

This post compares the 2008 Election Model* polling and projection trend to the 2004 Election Model. The state polling data source was for both.

The only assumption was that Kerry and Obama would each capture 60% (UVA) of the undecided vote. This was changed to 75% in the final Nov.1, 2004 projection in order to coincide with pollsters Zogby, Harris (75%) and Gallup (90%).

As of Sept. 17, the Election Model (60% UVA) projected:
2004: Kerry to win 49.5% of the 2-party vote and 247 EV.
2008: Obama to win 51.4% and 319 EV.

The 2004 Final Election Model (75% UVA) projected Kerry to win 51.8% with 337 EV.
As of Sept. 17, Obama is projected to win 52.7% and 348 EV (assuming 75% UVA).

View the 2-party popular and electoral vote share trends:
2004 Election Model Timeline
2004 Monthly National Polling Trend
2008 National Polling Trend
2008 Election Model Trend

The unadjusted aggregate state exit poll (over 70,000 respondents) indicated that Kerry won the two-party vote by 52.547.5% with 337 EV. But it should be obvious by now that Bush stole the 2004 election. His two-party recorded vote mandate was 51.348.7% (6259m) with 286 EV.

Forewarned is forearmed. It could very well happen again.

*alternative version


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