Reply #66: she won't lose the black vote in a general

[terrell9584]

because about 70% of the black population lives in the South, and another 20% lives in major cities which tend to be run by political machine and in which, blacks have not always been treated so well.

If black voters refuse to turn out, there will certainly be reprisals from the political machines, because in most cities, party organizations still run on loyalty. Machine politics may be less common today than it was 50 years ago, but it still exists today.

In the South, it gets more curious. There are many Democratic officials who hold their tenuous position in office only because black voters provide a cushion that means they only have to get a certain number of white votes. In some cases, this leads to white Democrats who are sympathetic to black interests, if just because of primary time. In other cases, these leads to control by black Democrats (who have the interests of the black community at heart). Now, in many of these black districts, a significant reduction in black turnout will lead to the replacement of many of these Democratic officials with Republican officials, who would know that they are there for one term, and who would have no interest in well, being good to the black community. If anything, in Republican politics in the South, being anti-black is actually a good campaign platform to run on, it has to be coded right, but it is still used today.

In other words, blacks refuse to vote out of some anger over Obama, they then undercut their position as 100-200 Republican sheriffs suddenly take formerly Democratic sheriffs positions and immediately begin to ramp up the pressure because, well, they have 4 years in office and for them, these offices will be nothing more than a stepping stone. In states where the legislatures have seats up for grabs, this could lead to Republican control, and what will Republicans do, especially ones who could care less about re-election, well, affirmative action, the first thing on the chopping block, as well as any government program that is theorized to be more for blacks than whites. The Republicans have tried for years to make the GOP the white mans party, and they have failed largely because of the fact that the Democratic Party still has tort attorney money, and in most Deep South states, can outraise the GOP handily. If the GOP did gain control, it would be 4 years of governance on race, that would be explicitly designed to benefit whites at the expense of blacks, in an attempt to lure stalwart whites into the Republican Party.

You could even see these legislatures pass modern versions of Jim Crow type legislation. In Northern cities, a reduction in black political representation that would necessarily be caused by reduced turnout, well, let's just say, police repression would increase, and you would see retaliation against the community by party big wigs who would want to do something retalitory (like when a neighborhood votes against an incumbent, and when he retains his office, suddenly that neighborhood school gets closed, and they decide to build a proposed recreational area elsewhere, all to punish neighborhood residents)

Of all groups in the country, the idea that blacks, who have been oppressed for years, are going to refuse to vote and as such, set their cause back 50 years, I just do not see that happening.