Reply #65: I think those projections are a little optomistic for the Clinton campaign.

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It doesn't account for Obama's momentum and another mathematical necessity. Since all the undecideds are gone, every point that Obama increases will result in an equal and opposite decrease in Clinton's numbers. They will become the inverse of each other. Her support will appear to vaporize over the next week.






Bullet1987 is correct about the voter turnout history being used as a factor in how the delegates are assigned. This is all explained in great detail in anther two-part series here:

http://www.burntorangereport.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4877
http://www.burntorangereport.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4881

They do have some precincts that have had remarkable turnout for past elections:

Record number of new voters in Austin, who show up to the polls at much higher numbers than any other area of the state....more specifically, showed up to the polls in the 2004 and 2006 general elections from which the national delegate allotments are derived. In 2004, the highest turnout precinct in all of Travis County was on campus where Precinct 148 had 99.58% turnout (2,366 of 2,376 voters in the 2004 general).

And as we have been told, the campus communities are going for Obama. A win in these high-turnout areas is worth more than a win in a low-turnout area, as far as delegates are concerned.