Reply #130: Cali, I entirely agree that Clinton can win.

[tomg]

In fact, should she be the nominee, she will win, as will any of the Dem nominees ( although Dems do have a tendency to form circular firing squads whereby they manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, but that is a very different issue. Question: what is the one thing uniting all democrats. Answer: that they all disagree with each other).

Still, I think that there are reasons that the Republicans need her to be the Democratic nominee for their own survival. The dems next year could run the table - too many Republicans in Senate are vulnerable or bailing out, and in the House the Dems could really take over big time. The Republicans need anything to stop the complete wipeout. It could make the Goldwater campaign look like a victory. Hillary gets their fundamentalist base going, and they will work hard against her. In fact, their irrational hatred of all things Clinton is about the only thing keeping that group even moderately in line with the Republican Party. At the same time, like many in our base I'll vote for her, as will everyone I know. But we won't go door to door.

The impact, then, could make itself felt in local, statewide and Congressional races. If the Republicans go with someone like a Huckabee/ Romney team, even though they could never win, a few close Representative races go the other way to the Republicans, an R. senator is saved, a governorship we should have gotten is down.

This isn't an argument against her being the nominee ( it could be seen as an argument against the base becoming complacent or purist). It is, though, a concern I have, and depending on the Republican nominee, it is something we need to consider. Of course if Guiliani is the Republican nominee, none of the above is a concern, and the Republicans are so screwed.