Nancy Johnson (R-CT-05) going down the tubes?

[NewJeffCT]

Maybe Johnson’s relentlessly negative campaign has turned a lot of people off to her? I mean, this woman has been in Congress for 24 years and her ads are all a barrage of attacks on her opponent, Chris Murphy. I mean, if you saw only her ads, you would think Chris Murphy advocated putting children in homes with violent criminals, was best friends with drug dealers and was on good terms with terrorists in Pakistan. Meanwhile, Murphy ran one negative ad that caused Johnson to hold a press conference & have a hissy fit – even though the Courant later confirmed that Murphy’s ad was true.

But, she is CT's most conservative representative, and has had only 1 close race in her 24 years. And, the one close race, vs Charlotte Koskoff in 1996, was kind of a surprise, as Johnson led in all the polls. I think this is the first time she has been behind in her career, that I can recall.

Johnson Losing Her Hold?
Courant/UConn Poll Paints Picture Of Vulnerable Incumbent, Gives Murphy 4 Percentage Point Lead In 5th District
October 30, 2006
By RINKER BUCK, Courant Staff Writer

U.S. Rep. Nancy Johnson's vulnerability as an incumbent - a subject of intense speculation all year in her central Connecticut district - appears to be confirmed by the latest Hartford Courant/University of Connecticut poll, which shows her trailing Democratic state Sen. Chris Murphy by 4 percentage points among likely voters.

UConn's pollsters found that among likely voters, Murphy was leading Johnson by 46 percent to 42 percent with 9 percent of voters still undecided. Murphy's lead is just outside the poll's margin of error of 3.6 percentage points. The poll of 762 likely voters in the 5th Congressional District was conducted by UConn's Center for Survey Research and Analysis between Oct. 24 and Oct. 28, just after Johnson and Murphy completed their debates.

<snip>

Among Democrats in the sample, Murphy is ahead by 77 percent to 16 percent. But the two "major" parties now represent just 55 percent of the registered voters in the 5th Congressional District, with 45 percent of voters registering as either unaffiliated or minor party members.

"These independent voters prefer Murphy over Johnson 45 percent to 36 percent," McDermott said. "That's a preference among unaffiliated voters that could well decide the outcome in this race."

http://www.courant.com/news/politics/hc-5thcdpoll1030.artoct30,0,6997645.story?coll=hc-big-headlines-breaking