Gallup: Dems surge one month before election(59%-36%)

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GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest USA Today/Gallup poll finds Democrats opening up a sizeable lead in likely voters' preferences for the U.S. House of Representatives. The political environment, favorable to Democrats for most of the year, has become even more favorable in recent weeks as the Republican leadership struggles with the Mark Foley scandal. The Democrats have not performed this well in a Gallup midterm election test since they enjoyed large congressional majorities in the 1970s.

Voting Preferences

Fifty-nine percent of likely voters in the Oct. 6-8, 2006 poll say they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their congressional district if the election were held today, while 36% prefer the Republican candidate. In the previous reading, taken just after the fifth anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, voting preferences were evenly divided.

Moreover, nearly half of likely voters, 47%, say they are certain to vote Democratic in the House elections. Just 26% are committed Republican voters, leaving 25% of voters up for grabs (the remaining 2% plan to support third-party candidates). If the current political environment does not change dramatically before Election Day, Republicans are looking at a situation where they would need to win almost all of the swing voters to win the majority of the congressional vote.

http://www.galluppoll.com/content/default.aspx?ci=24931&pg=1