Reply #7: A couple of problems:

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

There's his age. Another thing is the fact that the fundies don't like him (despite his recent sucking-up). He can try to capitalize on the faux-maverick thing to attract the non-fundies and remaining moderates, but he's trying way too hard to satisfy both the lunatic fringe Bushbots and the moderates, and I don't think he can do it. It's true that Allen might be self-destructing (fortunately; since he's even worse), and Giuliani won't fly with the hard-core wacko base, but that doesn't mean McCain is the shoo-in. The war is increasingly unpopular, even among many Republicans. My bets are on Hagel as things stand right now. He's got a conservative voting record which will satisfy most of the nutjobs, but he's critical of the war; this will only strengthen his position.