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Reply #58: I'd put more stock in correlations with past data than with other '04 data [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
AirAmFan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-01-05 07:19 PM
Response to Reply #57
58. I'd put more stock in correlations with past data than with other '04 data
Ballot lines for the Senate race were rotated too!

Sort the 1436 physical precinct IDs into numeric order. Those with an odd rank had Voinovich on the top Senate line, while those with even ranks had Fingerhut on the top line. This means that sometimes when a voter's Kerry punch was read as a vote for another candidate or Disqualified, her Fingerhut punch also was switched to Voinovich!

The 1436 actual ballot images for 11/04 still are online. For example, the three precincts voting together at Cory United Methodist Church (polling place 171), where I calculated Kerry lost 226 net votes, have these ranks, precinct ID #s, precinct name abbreviations, and candidates on the top Senate line:

  • 322 171 2207 CLEVE08G Fingerhut on top line

  • 323 171 2208 CLEVE08H Voinovich

  • 324 171 2209 CLEVE08I Fingerhut


  • Click on the links and see for yourself.

    THIS is how complex and unpredictable Ohio election law has made things!
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