Reply #22: Even more things.....

[rinsd]

"I don't see why Ford shouldn't count. What does the fact that he was not elected have to do with it. He was voted out of office for the same reason that other Republican incumbents have done poorly -- because they didn't like his performance."

He had all of two years in office. I'm not saying Ford would have been a great President. But after Watergate, his chances were slim and none of being elected.

"And if you don't count Ford, you can't count Coolidge either."

Fine. We should settle on a definition for re-election. My feeling is that if they came into office taking over from the VP spot, than won or lost and election that would be their first and not a re-election.

"Johnson won re-election because people were happy with his performance."

Again that was his own election after taking over in office.

"We don't know what would have happened had he run for a 3rd term."

True, we don't but it looked like a split in the Dem party over the Vietnam war could have doomed him.

"I think that it's very safe to say that if Kennedy hadn't been assassinated he would have won re-election."

I would agree with that.

"Yes, Nixon won re-election. But he didn't finish his term for the same reason that many Republican Presidents don't get re-elected -- a failed Presidency."

He was taken down by a scandal...a momentous one. Ultimately that is a failed Presidency but he still won a landslide before that happened.

"And why do you say that it's simplistic and misleading to claim that Democratic incumbents do quite well because the electorate is happy with them? Look at the job growth figures? Don't you think that that's a major issue when people go to vote? Why do you think that FDR got re-elected 3 times? And why did Clinton get re-elected despite a major scandal and perhaps the worst media coverage the country had ever seen? Don't you think that it had a lot to do with peoples' economic status? Why have 7 of 8 Democratic incumbents during the 20th Century all been re-elected despite the hostility of the rich and powerful? "

Maybe misleading was a bit much. But its still simplistic. It doesn't take into account the opposing candidates. If FDR was so popular why did his percentage of the vote decrease each re-election? Why would the party that created the Great Society get killed by a law and order candidate in the next election?

I am encouraged about Democratic chances in 2008 even against an incumbent GOPer because of two factors, one that way things are and two people seems to seek a change after 8 years.