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Reply #75: We were relying on plenty of myths heading into 2004 [View All]

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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-11-05 06:26 PM
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75. We were relying on plenty of myths heading into 2004
Many of them are repeated atop this thread. Bush was not as unpopular as our blinders-on hatred wanted to insist. The approval rating on election day was basically 50/50. Our late registration drives were hardly unique or decisive. Anyone who followed politics closely after 2000 realized the GOP had put together a widespread and massive registration campaign. They just did it quietly and focused on doing the bulk of it early, not the last minute cram studying mode we relied on. I warned in GD 2004 that our registration edge was a myth. More than a hundred posts jumped all over me, insisting we would net 3% or more via new voters.

Oh yeah, cell phone users and how they're unrepresented in the polls. I guess we're ignoring that fantasy now. Check back exactly one year and you'll see a flood of cell phone threads.

How about 75% of the undecideds to Kerry as the challenger? That was ludicrous. If you study 50/50 races as I have, particularly with a well known high profile challenger, the undecideds never split in massive number to the challenger. I warned Truth Is All about that repeatedly, but he insisted on projecting huge numbers into his election model.

I already mentioned in a previous post in this thread how the country gives a phenomenal benefit of a doubt to incumbents if his party has been in office only one term, now 11 victories in 12 tries. I made a minor mistake earlier. Carter's re-election failure was obviously 1980, not 1976. Gore would have been in trouble in 2004, since it would have been our 3rd straight term in charge.

That link I've posted many times continues to be mostly ignored. The baseline truths are tucked primarily at the bottom, so I'll paste some of the key sections below:

"But in several key battleground states in other regions, notably Florida, Republicans have made gains. With its conservative Cuban-American population, the Sunshine State's Hispanic population is among the more politically diverse in the country, though Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 12 points during the late 1990s. Today, Republicans have a slight advantage over Democrats, 32% to 30%.

The Republican party's gains in affiliation, if sustained into next year's general elections, may produce small but nevertheless important changes in the terrain on which the elections will be fought. Compared with the 2000 campaign, Republicans now have an edge among registered voters in party identification in the states that have been voting their way over the past three election cycles, so-called Red states, and have achieved parity with the Democrats in swing states.

Swing states tilted nearly as Democratic as the Blue states in the late 1990s. Even after the 2000 election, Democrats maintained a 36% to 31% advantage over the Republicans in these states. But after 9/11, this gap closed: swing states now divide evenly: 33% Democratic, 33% Republican. Republicans have made notable gains in a number of key swing states. Michigan, Minnesota and Iowa, three Midwestern states Al Gore won in 2000 by very slight margins, have all experienced significant shifts in party ID toward the GOP. And the five-point advantage enjoyed by Democrats in Florida in the run-up to the 2000 election has evaporated. In polling since Sept 11, 2001, 37% of Floridians call themselves Republicans, 36% Democrats."
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