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Reply #39: We all have a story...Crimes committed 10 months ago ARE relevant! [View All]

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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-11-05 02:05 AM
Response to Reply #37
39. We all have a story...Crimes committed 10 months ago ARE relevant!
This article is interesting and comprehensive. I find it much more persuasive than an ex Clarkie (who I voted for) stuck on the mean streets of the burbs somewhere. Even Sabato was ssying Kerry looked good on the ground.

As for your Kubleri-Ross, thanks but I'm not grieving. I'm analyzing. If we all just forgot what happened 10 months ago, we'd have a rolling general amnesty for all crimes. Just don't get caught and you're free from all those "mourners" who can't get over it. What would happen to "Cold Case Files" -- cancelled due to lack of interest in an event horizon geater than minus 10 months.

The psychology is not an argument. Arguments based on facts are of real interest however.

I'm game if you are.

And it is important. The commission of a political crime like we saw in the last election, organized voter suppression in various hot spots around the country, is something to remember. I want something done about that, aside from who won. Do you? We had a second attempt at a bogus felon purge in Florida (the base list of voters with no Hispanic sur names); we had huge problems in New Mexico-unexamined but important, none the less; and of course, the utter shame of Ohio. Voter suppression, organized, calculated, and flithy, is something that has to be stomped out, purged from the system. I'm not sad, I'm extremely motivated to make sure this doesn't happen again.

Here's a nice piece from the Post.

================================================

washingtonpost.com
What Poll and Registration Numbers Don't Reveal
Passion and Motivation to Vote Are Hard to Gauge

By Terry M. Neal
washingtonpost.com Staff Writer
Wednesday, October 13, 2004; 11:43 AM

With less than three weeks before the election, President Bush may be in a politically precarious position going into tonight's critical debate with Sen. John F. Kerry. Anecdotal and quantitative evidence suggest that Democrats and independent groups that support Democrats have done a better job than Republicans at registering new voters in key battleground states. In a normal year, the difficulty in getting the newly registered to the polls might mitigate this advantage. But anti-Bush passions on the left are running exceedingly high, making it more likely that marginal voters -- people who rarely or never vote -- will turn out this year.

"Conventional wisdom tells us that a good ground game means three to four points on Election Day," said Sarah Leonard, a spokeswoman for America Coming Together, a coalition of liberal, feminist and environmental organizations that supports Kerry.

University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato wrote in his "Crystal Ball" campaign analysis earlier this week that he expects a high turnout that will favor Kerry. "We are tempted to argue that Bush actually needed his full 5 to 6 percent September lead to insure a narrow victory," he wrote.

Part of Sabato's rationale for his prediction is that he thinks poll respondents who say they are undecided today will break somewhat more heavily for Kerry when they get to the voting booth.

For more than a year, a number of independent advocacy groups that support Democrats have worked diligently to identify and register potential Democratic voters. Even Republicans acknowledge that Democratic-leaning groups have registered far more people than Republican supporters.

For instance, America Coming Together says it has registered 400,000 new voters nationwide, the vast majority in the battleground states of Pennsylvania (131,000), Missouri (120,000) and Ohio (85,000).

Moving America Forward, a Latino advocacy group founded by New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D), announced this week that it had registered 140,000 new, mostly Hispanic voters in the closely divided states of Florida, New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona and Nevada. In Colorado, Florida and New Mexico the three states that have partisan registration -- about 60 percent of the new registrations have been Democrats, 20 percent Republicans and 20 percent independents, according to a spokesperson for the group.

In a front-page article in the New York Times on Sept. 26, writer Ford Fessenden wrote: "A sweeping voter registration campaign in heavily Democratic areas has added tens of thousands of new voters to the rolls in the swing states of Ohio and Florida, a surge that has far exceeded the efforts of Republicans in both states" The Washington Post has examined this phenomenon in a number of stories that are worth reading. You can see them here and here. One Post story notes that voter registration has surged in Republican-leaning Virginia -- a state not typically considered a battleground -- with the heaviest activity in the Washington, D.C., suburbs, the most reliably Democratic part of the state.

Aside from new voter registration, many Democrats and even some nonpartisans believe the polls are not accurately reflecting the intensity of passion felt by those on the left, many of whom will be motivated to vote for the first time out of anger at Bush and his policies.

For example, in the Washington Post/ABC News poll, respondents are asked first if they are registered to vote. They are also asked if they voted in the last presidential election. Those who answer no to the second question (besides 18-to-21 year olds), are excluded from the pool of likely voters. In yesterday's tracking poll, Bush led Kerry 50-47 among likely voters, but Kerry led Bush 48-46 among registered voters. That's means Bush benefits by 5 points when newly registered voters who didn't vote four years ago are excluded.

Remember the Republican Revolution of 1994? Leading up to the midterm election that year, most pollsters and analysts expected GOP gains, but few predicted the ensuing blowout, in part because it was difficult to quantify through polls the emotions that were percolating among white male voters in particular that year.

In many ways, this year's election is all about the president. Poll after poll has shown that he is more beloved among Republicans than Kerry is beloved among Democrats. Both candidates have equal unfavorable ratings among members of the opposing party. Forty-seven percent of independents in yesterday's Washington Post poll have an unfavorable impression of Bush, while 44 percent have an unfavorable impression of Kerry. But what these numbers don't reveal is who will be most motivated to vote.

"Nobody knows for sure what's going to happen," said Jack Pitney, a government professor at Claremont McKenna College in California, who has long been active in Republican politics. "But hatred is a more reliable motivator than love, particularly in a state like Florida where you have hatred and anger mixed with a thirst for revenge."
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