You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Reply #27: It's not what they thought, it's what they had to deal with; & late polls [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-10-05 11:15 PM
Response to Reply #20
27. It's not what they thought, it's what they had to deal with; & late polls
Edited on Mon Oct-10-05 11:18 PM by autorank
It isn't argued that they didn't understand it would be a larger turnout later in the election. The argument is that it looked like a rerun of 2000 to them and they saw the 3 million evangelicals as their ticket to ride. The extra votes canceled that out. That's the reasoning, not what they claimed to think or not. Address the issue of how the 3.0 million evangelicals get him where you think he got.

You forgot the undecided vote in your long list of polls. It's not the polls in September, it's the last series. Here is a summary above. If you want the actual polls, go here. I presumed 60% undecided for Kerry, just using the polling data. He wins handily. You have to pick a pretty low undecided number for Kerry, just using the pre election polls, to get a Bush victory. Of course, there the larger set of data.

Polling Data Source:
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm
http://www.economist.com/media/pdf/YouGovS.pdf

18 Poll Summary:
Kerry won 9, Bush 8, 1 tied
Kerry won 5 of 9 Registered Voter (RV) Polls
and 4 of 9 Likely Voter (LV) Polls

Poll simulation presuming Undecided to Kerry: 60%
Projection based on undecided allocation and weighted sample-size
Kerry 50.42
Bush 48.58
Other 1.00

Go here for a spread sheet allowing you to use the Excel interactive model.

http://us.share.geocities.com/electionmodel/Interactive...
------------------------------

The real point of this thread is the political logic, or rather illogic of claiming Bush won.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC